Surf's Up: Second Wave is Pipeline

First Wave blown out, Second Wave raked over...

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows" (Robert Zimmerman)

Why this does not look like The Great Depression of the 1930s

This Great Recession doesn't look like the Great Depression of the 1930s because we've made advances in technology, science and medicine, housing, manufacturing and the standard of living has risen considerably the past 20 years. Generally people entered into this economic crisis better off than in any other recession or depression, with good shelter, health, food, cars, goods and material possessions. The stark pictures of the 1930s made the era seem horrifyingly bleak because society was different entering into it, this era people have things that make life more comfortable, making the contrast less visible.

We are still in a Great Disruption, largely due to technology, the internet and the speed of communications and combined with an economic crisis based largely on massive debt with low production of anything of real value, it's not over yet. People who drank the Recovery Kool-Aid are starting to recognize that it was sugar water and wearing off. Some areas will experience recovery but that recovery means standing still and not sliding further back.

For individuals who have been experiencing varying degrees of difficulties since the tech crash of 2000 and the events of 9-11-2001 and have been learning along the way, people who never bought into the excess and others have been preparing, are long out of denial. A key point to remember is that although this depression may look different, they all share some characteristics. All four of my grandparents were determined not to do as many of their generation did, raise their children in fear of economic hard times by regaling them with horror stories. The truth is that during depressions many people do have very difficult circumstances but many people don't. My grandparents said it wasn't easy but many people overcame their circumstances and many had what they needed.

This "recession" is not over...What started in Athens, Greece will go all the way to Athens, California and around the globe to Asia and Arabia.

The lull from drinking Kool-Aid is passing and the world is rapidly pacing to a second wave of economic crisis that will make the first wave seem relatively tame. In the first wave, a credit crisis, disaster was skirted but not avoided, a point lost in the relief that the world didn't end during March 2009 in the US. Warren Buffett may have looked into the abyss but he failed to see it wasn't over globally. The general population has been lulled to believe that in a relatively short time life will return to normal.


Life will never be the same again. We will discover we don't need a lot of the consumer goods we've thought were necessary.

This second wave of economic crisis is a currency crisis and there is nothing anyone can do about it. The governments of the world can print all the money in the world and one simple fact remains, you can't spend your way out of debt.

All the King's horses and all the King's Men.

1. The consumer and business credit crisis and debt overhang has not been resolved.


2. Governments around the globe have deficits of epic proportions and taking them higher.


3. Debt is increasingly becoming more unproductive and weighing economies down worldwide.


4. The US Stock Market has been in a bubble as well as some industry and service sectors.

5. Liabilities far outweigh assets and the only way out is to rebuild assets, which will take a long time.

Government is the problem, not the answer, especially the government treasuries of the world. 
Worse: what is called free-market capitalism is neither a market that is free or true capitalism.
Limited government and true free markets must prevail or this civilization will go the way of Rome.

1. De-leveraging will take years to work out.


2. Shake-out of banks and financial institutions will occur.


3. Reconciliation of the books will be contentious.


4. Currencies will have to be revalued and pegged to something of value.

In the United States:

1. Unemployment will be a long term vexing problem.


2. There is disagreement if there's going to be inflation, hyperinflation, deflation or stagflation, or all of the above, but none of them are good.


3. Look at facts...Japan in the 90s after a real estate bubble now has debt 200% greater than GDP.


4. One thing is certain, there will be stagnation on multiple social and economic fronts.


5. The Political Class think they can resolve it but by nature of constituencies, will make it worse.

Stagnation will bring more divisiveness and unless a cloud of euphoric nitrous oxide fills the air, there is every likelihood the political front will be toxic. Civil unrest and discontent is likely that may make the late 60s and early 70s seem tame.

It will be a result of the realization that the world is readjusting and we have to go through a total revaluation of literally everything. In the United States we have several generations who have never seen even a mildly bad time and like a baby whose rattle has been snatched, they will kick, cry and scream. Since they're adults, they'll also be demanding and want their way, leading to clashing with others who also want their way. For these unprepared people, it will be psychologically as well as physically uncomfortable. There is no Prozac for what's to come.

This is not to understate or dismiss the misery since this is going to be a long period of adjustment. Social unrest, major political change and economic corrections of this magnitude throughout history have been terrible experiences.

What does a reasonable well adjusted individual do? Anyone who read this far, already has a good sense that a solid foundation based in character and good values, with a large dose of common sense and the ability to think of ways around problems will go a long way to healthy survival. There are a lot of prognosticators out there, I can only agree that we are in for a long haul fundamental change in the way we have lived, how it plays out is nothing but good guessing.

History is a good guide and we can find some answers there. The main lesson from history though is that periodically, the world goes through significant changes as it moves from one age to another. I believe that's what is happening now, a change of the ages, I see it as an exciting time to live and observe.
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Jeffrey Miron of the Cato Institute on DC's Spending Spree

http://www.youtube.com/user/catoinstitutevideo#p/a/u/1/Yh2EPHpRg3Y

http://www.youtube.com/user/catoinstitutevideo

Urban Landscape Photography IV

Mural, Mural on the wall...

"I Have Not Read The Law"

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer does it again...

This time with puppets. Her new campaign ad is "Arizona-Sing-Along: Read Immigration Law!" and is catching on. The ad is quite clever and if nothing else, Jan Brewer is taking advantage of riding the crest of a wave. She's gained popularity since signing SB1070 and her goal of increasing the sales tax was passed by Arizona voters last Tuesday, May 18.

Her popularity may be short-lived when the backlash hits over her pushing the sales tax increase, which slapped hard the unemployed, low income and fixed income citizens (there are many in this state) in the face. The campaign to back the law was not supported by Republicans (she is running in the August 24th Republican primary to become elected Governor) but rather by their natural opponents. The primary force was public sector and teachers unions, their sympathizers and the Democrat Attorney General, also running for Governor in the Democratic Party primary.

When people realize it was false advertising by the proponents because Arizona public schools, beneficiaries of the sales tax, are notorious for bloated bureaucratic administration staffs and that the sales tax doesn't actually put teachers in the classroom...the joke will be on her.

Arizona 3rd Congressional District Primary Candidate

Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker is Red...

There is a disconnect between what minority and ethnic groups believe in principle and the Social Democrats have a vested interest in keeping them believing they're oppressed. 

Actually their views align more with the change that is happening in the Republican Party (the rejection of Corporate Republicanism and acceptance of candidates like Rand Paul) than the far left Social Democrat agenda of Obama and incumbent Democrats and Democratic Party candidates. American people of color are no different than most Americans, they have a work ethic to obtain what they aspire to, want to achieve ownership on their own merit and don't want what they earn confiscated by the government. The myth that only the Democratic Party has their best interests at heart is because that party would like for them to believe they have been cheated. Democrats offer them false protection in the guise of "hope" in order to maintain their grip on their vote, taking them for granted.

"The Democratic Party has done a good job of selling to the African-American, Latino, Asian community...this is your party." Vernon Parker

However when he asks these individuals:
"Do you believe government should give you everything?" Response: NO!
"Would you like to live in government housing?" Response: No!
"Would you like your taxes increased?" Response: No!


Phoenix Channel 3 is an unaffiliated local channel that still manages to produce local news primarily in a fair tradition. This video is a story on Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker who is running in the Republican Party for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District to fill the seat being vacated by John Shadegg. Parker overcame growing up in an area blighted by drugs and violence through the love and support of his family, to graduate from Georgetown Law School. A small businessman, his focus is reducing taxes and policies to help the private sector create jobs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVsQzk4NKEQ

http://www.youtube.com/ParkerForCongress

A Cut Above From Below

What is the meaning of elite?

It's all in the context of personal perception and interpretation


I've been having an ongoing discussion recently with a friend of 45 years over the word elite and what it means. We have similar education backgrounds (we went to the same high school and colleges, different degrees) but come from different socio-economic backgrounds. Over the decades we have had a lot of discussions on topics of "great political and social import," to borrow a phrase from Janis Joplin.

In this case it started with my using the word "elite" which I intended in the first dictionary definition of "the choice or best of anything considered collectively, as a group or class of persons and partly in the second definition sense of "persons of the highest class." Let me state that I personally never have associated class with money, prominent position, aristocracy, name-your-upper-crust. In my mind class has always been associated with any social, economic or political individual or group that carries themselves with a certain dignity and respect for others, which in turn gives them dignity and respect.

I have never understood the visceral reaction so many Americans have to the word elite. They automatically assume it means the third dictionary definition "a group of persons exercising the major authority or influence within a larger group," as in Power Elite and Big Boss Man and in a reactionary way, vehemently call it inherently evil. The idea that elite might merely mean someone or something that exceeds or is more educated, intelligent, accomplished is just considered wrong. Because in America no one better be better than me or anyone else.

Is this what the notion of equality has become? It no longer is about equal rights and opportunity but about equal entitlement? 

Inevitably I get accused of classism or something of the sort if I suggest that human nature and selection of the species indicates that some people, are in fact just better in some ways than others. That somehow this is snobbishness and it's wrong to think that someone can rise above others, are natural leaders and should fill that role. Inevitably I discover that these same people also resent anyone in leadership position of any kind, although they would loath to themselves be a leader instead of the "chosen one."

I suggest that it is peculiarly American trait, born out of a misguided idea that this is a pure democracy coupled with an ignorance of what a democratic republic really means. It almost always springs from someone who is from or perceives themselves to be "working class" and I have concluded it is also classism, only in reverse and the worst kind. "I can't envision myself (or am too lazy) being able to improve or rise above my station, therefore anyone who does is an elitist snob who looks down on me."

It is the worst kind because the concept of achievement, ability, knowledge, skills are to be derided rather than lauded. It assumes that everyone who has "gotten somewhere" gained it without some effort, education and work and is in it purely for themselves with total disregard for others. Perhaps this is why so many people with elite qualities stick to themselves and others like them.

End of the Line

Hanging up on the wireline telephone network...

There is No Dial Tone

Vandals Delight: they don't even bury it any more, just lay it on the ground for a 200 yards.

Casa Grande Ruins

Remains of The Hohokam...

The ruins of Casa Grande is a large structure of remains of the Hohokam culture that lasted about 1000 years. When this structure was visited by Father Eusebio Kino in 1694, it had been abandoned since around 1450. Father Kino's entries into his journal were the first written record of the site, since the Hohokam themselves left no written records. Oral tradition and archaeological evidence lead to the belief they are the ancestors of the Akimel O'Odham (Pima) and Tohono O'Odham Indians. The Hohokam were spread across the Gila and Salt Rivers and engaged in extensive irrigation farming and wide spread trade, disappearing in the mid 1400s.

What remains is this large structure, the apex of their architecture, with holes in three of the walls indicating it was used for astronomical purposes. It is built with caliche with walls at the base 4 1/2 feet thick. The building was at the center of the largest community of villages located between two of their large canals. This site was for observing the movement of celestial objects to be aware of seasons for planting, harvesting as well as other significant events. The compound contains a ball court, pithouses surrounded by central plazas and platform mounds enclosed by walls. This was a special structure for these desert dwellers.

Located in the northern part of the Sonoran desert, the people of this civilization were also hunters and gatherers as well as farmers and are considered the first people to have learned how to live in the American Desert. They were dependent on a developed irrigation system and what happened to them is not fully known. The water cycles of the rivers of the desert lend themselves to flooding and periods of dryness. It appears that high water damaged their irrigation systems and coupled with dry periods, the water wasn't able flow high enough in the canals to be distributed among the communities and farming fields, causing them to abandon their communities. Those that remained stayed in small settlements and probably became what are now the O'Odham peoples.

Construction to preserve the ruins started in the 1930s, beginning with the steel shelter roof and the main part of what is now the visitor center, which was completed in 1932. The Civilian Conservation Corps built small adobe buildings between 1937 and 1940 that are still in use today.

Guidelines of Money

Personal finance and money have their own commandments...

If you're doing what you should be doing with money, then money will fall into place for you.

Everyone has their own relationship with money but it is important to understand that money has its own relationship and commandments that are outside of the individual. If you take control of your money, you will not feel out of control of money. The way you relate to money says a lot about you and what you value. Keep foremost in your mind the understanding that money is an illusion, especially today's money that is printed off presses with no real value, like gold or silver, behind it. The value of money can quickly change depending on economic, political and social circumstances, so it's critical to not let your values be based on the value of money.

That is not to say that having money is not important in our society. It clearly is. The problem comes when our concept of money is not clearly defined with our concept of ourselves. It is alright to like money but it shouldn't affect who you are. If that is clear, you will have the money you need (and probably more) because you are clear about managing the money you have, leveraging it to the best advantage, which then leads to comfort with money and the rest follows. That's because your mind is in the right place with it. You will have the things you need and be in a position to gain things you want.

Assessing the personal value of money:

1. Acknowledge that your personal values have to be enduring concrete values, not based on material goods but autonomous and existing separately of money.


2. There are intrinsic agendas in the world you exist in and how you relate to it and them. They should be consistent with your way of life and include monitoring your money and your attitude about it.


3. Money should not be the driver or the destination, it is the result of achieving something of real value.  If money is the only goal, misery follows.

A lot of people are in personal turmoil because of the relationship they've had with money and not understood what it really was worth and the damage it could do to them. Personal finances sooner or later, if not properly handled and misunderstood, eventually require reconciliation. How someone copes with that is dependent on their values, their willingness to reevaluate their affiliation with money and if they want to change. Money is fundamentally a relationship with things in the world and how you view things is important in understanding your relationship with money. There is nothing wrong with having things, whether your desires are modest or ostentatious, as long as you purchase them in an ethically correct manner.

It is a fact of life that some people have more money than others and it's not always due to what is fair, how hard one has worked or sometimes how well they've handled money. Nor does it have anything to do with your value as a person. Circumstances just are what they are and coming to terms with them in a harmonious way depends on harmony with personal values. There may be struggles with money but they can be relatively free of strife. Struggle is different from strife.

It's essential to control your money so it doesn't control you.


Enduring commandments of money:

1. Take charge of your finances, manage them yourself, never abdicate control. It is your money and peace of mind.


2. Live within your means: budget, monitor expenses, do bookkeeping and maintain records of your money. This does not have to be complex, it can be a notebook or an envelope system.


3. No debt is key. Exceptions might be a car, a house or property but only if it makes practical sense. Use credit sparingly; preserve your credit score.


4. Maintain a significant enough amount of savings for a backup and emergencies. Pay yourself first, preferably five to ten percent, or any amount, even if it's a few dollars or pocket change.


5. Avoid emotionally based financial decisions. If in doubt, don't do it, trust your instincts to avoid fear of finances and disastrous results.

We are entering three years of economic crisis and for most people, except the uber-rich, the end is at least three to five years away. Every indication is a second wave has started and it is even more important we take care of our money. If you are in a situation where you made money mistakes and it is causing you difficulty, own up to them and find relief in working towards solutions. Invest in your peace of mind by doing that and as much as possible, follow the commandments of money. Once resolved, following all of them will likely be easier due to lessons learned. If you are not in financial trouble and not following the guidelines of money...Start NOW!

California Dreamin'

There is a lake in California...

In a Jeep with a name: "Dusty"

It's summer for all practical purposes here in the desert and I will be making my annual trek to the high desert of inland California very soon to visit my friend there. We shoot and edit video, play music and sing as well as laugh and dance...heat be damned!

Here is a replay of a video from last year's trip taken on the way, at a stop at Ford Dry Lake during the peak of heat, in August.

http://www.vimeo.com/9262701

There Is A Lake in California... from JR Snyder Jr on Vimeo.
A visit to Ford Dry Lake in California in August, peak heat of the year. In the desert, things are not always what they seem.
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Self Portrait

I Am Curious (Blue)...