End of the Road?

Cordes Junction 

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Phoenix Economic Crisis in Five Paragraphs

Low Tide, Waiting for Second and Third Wave...

Residential Mortgage/Lender Crisis: In the Phoenix Metro area housing prices have dropped at least 50% leaving most homeowners underwater. There are quite a few indicators they will drop further. Personal debt stress, exacerbated by overextension of HELOC, credit card and other unsecured debt, has created social problems and identity crises on a large scale. Lender's are not in a position to  forgive debt in an economic scenario with a cornucopia of perpetrators. 

Unemployment/Underemployment: Although statistically the Phoenix unemployment rate is not as high as some areas (it technically hovers around 9%) realistically it is probably in the high teens and possibly low twenties percentile. This does not include the underemployed and those who have been employed for the duration of the economic crisis but never earned high wages and/or had their earnings decreased by cut backs in hours, bonuses/incentives slashed or stopped, 401K contributions ceased and wage step backs.

State Government Indebtedness: The State of Arizona's budget problems are legion, of all states it has the second highest shortfall and considered the worst deficit in the nation. The gap is $2 billion with no real pending revenue in the foreseeable future. Federal stimulus money has all been spent basically due to the Governor and Legislature failing to realistically deal with budget cuts at state agencies and in programs. The Unemployment Insurance fund is insolvent. The Legislature is once again called this week into Special Session by the Governor. Additionally the tax structure of Arizona is largely based on sales taxes, money is collected by the State Treasurer and then distributed to counties, cities and towns. Proposals to increase sales taxes is strongly resisted. Raising taxes on a population and business community that is having difficulty paying current bills could only curtail spending and hiring, resulting in actually reducing revenue.    

Commercial Real Estate: The elephant in the room. The Valley is spread with high rises and strip malls that have never been occupied or even completed. There are many more that have already been vacated or are emptying out and prices on all commercial real estate this year have descended by 50%. The implosion of Mortgages Ltd. sparked devastation in the commercial market by reaching far beyond properties Scott Coles and company ever supposedly financed in a Ponzi-like scheme of tremulous magnitude. Essentially commercial property is in abeyance and has yet to fall completely although on it's way. It is a ticking time bomb.

Immigration and Population: Phoenix has a large illegal immigration population that is not being resolved. Regardless of political, ethical or moral considerations, this is economically unsustainable. People living in the shadows with little or no income and the associated social problems is factually a fiscally risky business. There are also reliable indicators, although the statistics are not complete, that Phoenix is de facto losing other population. It is accepted that a lot of talented, educated and high earners have already left, a loss of leadership and skills when most needed.

Denial: There is a sizable segment of the business community, political class and general population that has blinders on. No one likes to fail, concede or relinquish the life they've been living. The Day of Reckoning is coming and many people will be forced to skip anger/resentment, bargaining, depression and crash directly into hard pavement acceptance. Many people are going through these stages now but putting on a brave face (I refer to this as The Scottsdale Syndrome), which is masking as denial.


For some background, visit my post with a video blog done on Labor Day 2009, "The Economy and Me: My Hometown" http://bit.ly/3jjus3

PART TWO:

There is a future

411: What City Please?

Men Broke Barriers Too...

In early 1973 I was one of the first male telephone company switchboard operators hired by the Bell System (and Independent Companies) in the US in over 75 years. I was crossed-trained as a Directory Assistance operator (we worked with large paper directories) and as a Toll and Assistance operator on a manual cord switchboard built in 1948. I later worked as an overseas operator on old circuits in an International Operator Center. Some of my anecdotal operator stories, as well as operator history articles are on the website Privateline.

Telephone history still interests me and look forward on this blog for photographs of original switchboards we used "back in the day."


This is a short video I did a few years ago telling a comedic story about one of my experiences in those days.


411: For What City Please? from JR Snyder Jr on Vimeo.

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Arizona Blooms on the Ides of March

Season of "Just Right" blessed by lots of rain after Season of "Cool"

Desert Broom in bloom

Phoenix has three seasons: cool, just right and very hot. This has been an unusual year since we have had a very rainy winter with rainfall in the Phoenix metro area since January ranging from 4 to 10 inches according to rainlog.org for the period between January 1st and March 14. This has caused a lot of early blooming and an abundance of greenery after a very dry decade of drought.







March is generally when we can tell what type of summer we will have and so far this look's very good. I can not remember having a winter weather like this since the mid-nineties. What a great way to start a decade.

Spring Leaf Buds

We know that we can look forward to very hot but many of us like that season. It's far more enjoyable though after a mild cool winter and a spring of just right.

The Jump Back Brothers Live at M7 Street Fair

...the M7 (Melrose on 7 Ave) Street Fair March 06, 2010

http://www.myspace.com/jumpbackbrothers

The M7 Street Fair in the Melrose on 7th Avenue District is one of the most popular street fairs in Phoenix. It is a judged classic car collector show, food festival, local artist market and above all else, a variety of live music.

In this video The Jump Back Brothers play their unique blend of blues, rockabilly, rock and country with swing, jazz and other styles mixed in for a solid American music adventure.

The Jump Back Brothers Live at M7 Street Fair from JR Snyder Jr on Vimeo.

Through A Glass Darkly

"For Now We See In A Mirror Dimly...

but then face to face; now I know in part, but then I shall know fully just as I also have been fully known."
(I Corinthians 13:12)


Understanding this piece of Scripture, whether you're a pure Christian Believer or choose to acknowledge basic premise truths in life, is a powerful understanding. We have an obscured view of life and selves and regardless of personally held belief systems, being aware that we do allows a better perspective on how things are and the control we do and don't have over circumstances. How also we can make the best of them and not allow kismet to overcome us.

"On Reflection" by JR Snyder Jr 2010

For me the Personal Key in Life is intrinsic in me and my belief is it's rooted in my Christian background and the fundamental basic truths originally intended in the New and Old Testaments. They provided the foundation for the broader understanding of how to interpret and cope with the world. I am not so arrogant and audacious to believe that access to understanding, enlightenment and spiritual awareness is limited to one religion or spiritual path. This has given me much trouble over the decades with fellow Christian Believers...so be it.

My Key is about rising above, looking up and thinking positively and faith in a Higher Power. We can always look around and find someone better off and someone worse off than we are. We are bound to feel downhearted at times, it is how we turn it around that matters. It takes work.

Our vision is veiled but we see enough outline to tell what is good and right and where and how to proceed. On occasion we get rare visions of beautiful clarity, however mostly it's operating on instinct. Experience is the greatest teacher and to not learn from it is folly. Once you go near the fire, you don't go back to get burned again. Negativity spirals down a dark pit. Thinking positive and heading to light attracts others looking for light, not darkness...support always helps. To that end, take from Jesus, "Let your light shine before men in such a way they may see..." (Matthew 5:16).

If you're secular and believe nothing spiritual, I won't argue with you over that, it's your choice and everyman has free will. On the other hand I won't argue with you if you draw your Higher Power from a supernatural being or a belief that is different from mine, my only judgment is I must perceive that it comes from light.
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Sunset Point Scenic View

Black Canyon Highway (I-17) Exit 252 Sunset Point Scenic View 

 

Sunset Point is a popular overlook from the rest area on the Black Canyon Highway (Interstate 17) located at exit 252 just north of Bumble Bee and south of Badger Springs Road. It sits on a mesa ("tabletop mountain") and the rest area is on the western edge of the mesa. You can stand with your back less than one-half mile from interstate traffic and overlook a beautiful vista known for it's scenic sunsets, hence the name. A traveler passing through Arizona, unable to take the time to visit the beautiful geography of the state, for a few moments at least, can intake some of the state's charm. If they arrive at the right time, they can see a beautiful sunset fall below the mountains into Bumble Bee and Crown King.

Enjoy a short video of the mesa on the east side of the Black Canyon Highway and the vista from the overlook on the west side of the Interstate.

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Arizona Sunset Point Scenic View on the Black Canyon Highway from JR Snyder Jr on Vimeo.

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