Tucson AZ

Down and out in the boondocks...

Hit by the economic downturn and tragedy but not out for good.

The Old Pueblo is showing its age through this economic downturn. Tucson is a bit tarnished from the transition in the previous decade from a quaint small city with a university to a popular relocation destination with a lot of lookalike housing surrounding it. It once had a thriving film location business and attractions that suffered unfortunate fates both fueled by fire. The original Old Tucson movie studios and the community on top of Mt. Lemon both burned down and never restored to what they once were.

The natural beauty of the Sonoran desert around Tucson is still alive. The two rainy seasons, winter and summer, keeps the desert lush. Tucson and Pima County made wise decisions decades ago to reduce light pollution by having little street lighting due to the nearby observatories and preserving the desert landscaping by ordinance. It escaped the importation of plants and remaking the desert into a California-like city as Phoenix did. Due to its geography and these measures the urban heat island effect is limited.

For seven Biblically epic long years I lived in Oro Valley just north of the city. In those years I witnessed the town transform from a sleepy stable horse and ranch village to a suburb that rivaled those of Phoenix with seemingly endless miles of stucco and red tile roof houses most people could not really afford. I lived at the base of Pusch Ridge and my home was immune to the worst of it but Oracle Road, the main thoroughfare, became nearly impossible to navigate to get there. Worse, I lost three jobs due to companies disappearing from the area. Tucson metros major problem is employers such as AT&T, Lucent, IBM, Qwest, UPS and others departed to be replaced by low paying contract call centers. The remaining employers, defense contractors, military, aviation, Pima County and the University of Arizona have entrenched employees subject to frequent cutbacks and layoffs.

Tucson stands alone as a liberal political island surrounded even in its own county by a conservative constituency more aligned with the rest of the state. In my recent visit there it seems the tragic event of the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords took away what confidence was left out of the area. The city itself  and the territory around it also appear worn down and bereft. Its close proximity to the border has taken its toll also. This once thriving alternative to Phoenix seems to have lost its way, unsure of what to do and where to go next. My estimation is that Tucson metro still has a lot going for it and although it will take time the region will pick itself up, dust off and revitalize into an even better place than it once was.

Working for The Man

Working in the fields you get your facts learned...

and I got my facts learned real good.

This economic climate is like the weather, we have no control over it. The storm is gusting winds, huffing and puffing and blowing houses down, rain is flooding the basements and lower floors and no amount of sandbagging is going to stop it. Politicians and bureaucrats egos may lead them to believe they can do something about it but most of the population has figured out that we're in a disruptive contraction that will run it's own course.

Personally I don't believe the unemployment figure is going to remain stagnant and only go up or down a notch or two as the so-called experts predict. It's widely agreed that unemployment is going to be a problem for a long time and it is my opinion it is going to go higher. Already it is higher than official numbers reflect. The broken record is that this is an economic contraction due to overleveraging of debt by individuals and government. If people are not employed they cannot pay debt or taxes. That is a fact.

Our country has created people with a mindset of a job or career working for a large or medium sized employer with an implied contract of benefits and a pension. The Man. No longer is he willing to carry the contract though. This administration has also done everything it can to kill many of the remaining average micro entrepreneurial enterprises as well as small businesses out there that might have employed a few people or kept a family going. A "jobs program?" Really? My additional thought is there is no point in retraining or educating for careers unlikely to exist in the coming years. Working for The Man is past tense. Small businesses must rework their way around the obstructions. Thinking otherwise is a delusion.

Individuals work in the present to plan for a different future.

The people who are thriving and will thrive are those who are thinking creatively while looking down the road and taking control now of what they can. They aren't putting themselves into debt or deficit spending and if they are in that position they are digging their way out of it. The Americans who are making it are those who are achievement oriented, still have a sense of reward for hard work and self-reliance, cutting a swath for their own path. Perhaps that means working at a job now as a means to an end but the end game is not to work for someone else in the sense we have been. The primary intention at this juncture is a future forward assessment of skills that are of value and develop them alongside additional ones.

What a thinking ahead person is doing in one way or another is fashioning tools in every moment of spare time. They're figuring out how to make a living or already are in the coming new period and create a different way of life. In stormy weather they're holding fast to values in order to rebuild lives above the flood line. There is not a politician or bureaucrat that can provide the ingredients necessary to prepare and act to accomplish the reconstruction required. While this economic contraction is running its course simultaneously individuals and communities are reinventing themselves on their own. People are or will be working for themselves, either in their own enterprises or as free agents for another enterprise by choice. The government can't machinate that. Only individuals and communities can engineer the kind of renovation our economy needs for our country to fully function again.

(With apologies to Springsteen on this Labor Day.)

Outside: The Town Seethes A Disquieting Heat

Inside: Blinds drawn waiting for gunfight in the street...

This summer will be a watershed moment for Arizona in the sense that many more people will accept the reality of the fundamental economic and social problems we face in our state. These are essentially the same as the rest of the country except we have economic indicators that seem technically not so bad but are deeply rooted in our almost total dependence on growth by continuous construction and real estate investment. The saloon brawl is over, egos and finances have been bruised, the stockmen and gamblers have retreated to their gathering places and all is quiet in town for the moment, waiting...

On Labor Day 2009 I did a video blog "The Economy and Me: My Hometown, Phoenix AZ" in which I discussed the fundamental problems of our state. On March 17, 2010 I wrote a blog "Phoenix Economic Crisis in Six Paragraphs" that outlined six fundamental problems we face. Two days later I wrote Part Two "We Will Still Need To Wear Shades" of how these six underlying points needed to be addressed if we were going to restore ourselves. These six essential problems still exist and actually were postponed due to 2010 being a year of respite where the inevitable was forestalled by loose money policies of the Federal government.

The points are:

• Residential Mortgage/Lender Crisis
• Unemployment/Underemployment
• State Government Insolvency
• Commercial Real Estate
• Immigration and Population
• Denial and Acceptance

These points remain essentially the same although some events over time have modified or accelerated them. The underlying problem to everything is simple: too much debt and the only way to resolve any of these points is deleveraging and bringing down the debt load of governments and individuals. The standoff between debtors and lenders cannot be forestalled any longer, the moment of who draws guns first has arrived.

The Real Estate problem, both Residential and Commercial along with the Mortgage/Lender Crisis, is heading for a Double Dip that is far worse than the first. At what point people are on the Denial and Acceptance continuum depends on what position they hold in the market. There is not much to be said that hasn't already been said on this topic except that City of Phoenix core has stayed relatively stable to what it had already dropped to. The city is ringed by cheaply built cookie cutter suburbs, mostly sub-prime, that are falling apart and much more underwater than residential and commercial real estate in Phoenix. The entire metro area will not escape another drop though with a few small exceptional pockets.

Unemployment and Underemployment is our most vexing problem. Although our numbers are slightly lower than the national average we're actually in worse shape. Realistically unemployment is somewhere between 15% and 25% but difficult to gauge since we do not have a stable long term population and an inept Local Census Bureau operation lacked credibility in being able to account for that with any semblance of accuracy. Those that are employed or underemployed are primarily in low wage jobs, have received little pay increases and are paying higher health insurance premiums making net pay lower. The jobs we have lost are gone and will not be coming back. This summer what businesses that have not died or fled the state, either because they are teetering or see no future here, will either be killed off or fly the coop. Some of the things that are against us now may very well be what saves us, such as inexpensive, plentiful commercial real estate and a hard working low wage labor force that is known for developed customer service skills.

Our State Government did a good job of balancing a budget the first year of this Legislative Session but the way Arizona government is organized, the burden falls on the counties, cities and towns that for the most part are acting in denial. Eventually they will have to cut services since the tax revenue provided to them by the state simply is not coming in. The political class and bureaucracies of Phoenix and Prescott are particularly guilty of being foolish and unrealistic with their expectations. They continue to operate as if the taxpayers can afford to subsidize their relatively luxurious salaries, benefits and are forging ahead with unrealistic projects and services. The police and fire unions will eventually have to capitulate on salaries, benefits and pensions along with "double dipping" into the system on all levels will have to cease.

Immigration in the form of illegal immigration has slowed by legislation well known as SB1070 but it certainly has not stopped. Our population both illegal and legal has gone underground; much of the legal population of all ethnic groups cannot afford to be out and about as they once did. Significant segments that do are spending borrowed money which also means borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later. We have a high student population due to the wide variety of educational institutions, especially in Phoenix, that traditionally have drawn positive impressions of the state and they either stayed or spread the good word when they left. Now they are just leaving since we are unable to offer them good employment at high wages to pay their colossal student indebtedness back. We are slowly building a strong solar industry which will require us to educate our population in that area as well as other industries we are gradually establishing.

We are in the same position I stated in my video blog of Labor Day 2009. It haunts of an era gone by of the old western town before there is a standoff. Everyone has gone inside, locked the doors and drawn the blinds hoping nothing will happen but knowing that something will. Some are in acceptance and others are in denial. What will occur is a white hat and a black hat representing the debtors and the loan holders, who is wearing what hat depends on point of view, will have a gunfight and one of them will lose triggering off other bullets to fire. When it's all over the dust will eventually settle and the town will inevitably come out and life will begin again. It will take time to reshape what we have and into something more sustainable and substantive but there is every reason to believe Arizona has all the basic elements needed to get fundamentals right again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbCARgTdin8&hd=1

If You Are Unemployed or Underemployed

Make the most of your time...

Escapism is not a good full time occupation due to consequences.

Recent studies are indicating that TV watching and sleeping is rising rather than learning, exercise or self-improvement among the unemployed or underemployed. Other studies indicate that use of prescription psychoactive and painkiller drugs is escalating. Among developed countries the US is the third most expensive place to acquire cocaine along with its cousin methamphetamine due to high demand equaling high pricing by drug dealers. Americans are retreating into escapism and it should be no surprise given the state of our economy. Gratification providers are opportunistic capitalists and more than willing to make a profit at the expense of peoples need for comfort and their weaknesses.

As someone who has experienced both unemployment and underemployment since 2007 I can attest that this is a mistake I personally see a lot of people making. When I lost my job in 2007 due to the mortgage/foreclosure crisis, I determined that I was going to remain positive. It occurred in late summer and the stock market was cascading downward and it was clear that things were definitely awry in the economy in general and the first layoffs in the real estate, construction and financial industry were beginning. It seemed obvious to me that getting employment that matched what I had was unlikely. Fortunately there was another income in my household and by cutting expenses we would be alright for the time being.

My first goal was to keep my time occupied and I determined a course of action that was twofold. The first was practical; take care of items around the home that had been neglected and had fallen by the wayside that two full time working adults often don't have time or inclination for. The other was to reinvigorate my creative interests and cultivate them further. I set goals to improve my creating website and video content aptitude and learn more about interacting on the social web with the natural byproduct of gaining information to get those skills. I wanted to learn more about web templates, CSS, photography, video editing and improve my writing among other things.

It made sense to me to set out on trying to find any income where I could, even if they were small amount multiple streams, for my own sake of pride and pocket money. I have competence in legal work and did temporary and short term projects as well as contracting myself out to individuals and small groups whose technical savvy was behind the curve and wanted help using computers, the web and smartphones for job retention or seeking. I worked part-time for government agencies even though I dislike working in them the fact it was not permanent made it palatable. There were dry spells of income between and sometimes it was sketchy if we were even going to break even at times.

Think beyond the long term social, economic and political disruption.

This is a long term economic reset and it is likely to get worse before it gets better. The road to worldwide and American economy readjustment is a long one that is mostly uphill. Since there are no easy resolutions, as TARP and Quantitative Easing have proven, we may as well settle into the idea of making the best we can of it. My point is that during this time I think we are going to be divided not so much by education or income but by who is making the best use of their time with limited resources and those who are languishing by the wayside. This is a personal choice and I make no judgment on those who choose to fall into escapism but reserve my right not to associate with them or allow them to interfere with my well-being.

As it happens, those people I know who have been taking these past few years of unemployment and underemployment and undertaking self-development are getting some rewards for their efforts. Personally through being engaged with activities and other people I was gaining a new network of people in similar situations. Just over a year ago, right as I was beginning to think I would never hold a regular job again and have health insurance, through my associations and a recommendation I obtained a part-time job with inexpensive health benefits. The pay is much lower than I'm used to but it supplements another regular income I now have. Additionally through my creative work I'm still able to pick up pocket money. None of this would have happened if I had not remained positive and kept myself going.

This has gone a long way to improve not only my financial situation but also my sense of self although life has not returned to what it was financially. Looking back, I'm not sure now I need it to, I've learned a whole new way of living that has given me a sense of liberty and freedom I didn't have when working the drudgery of a "real job for The Man." My concept of thinking if you're doing the right thing the money will follow has been reinforced. I'm not as concerned for the future since I believe that if I maintain and keep current on changes in the society and the way we all will be living then my personal economic condition will eventually improve naturally.

Prepare for after the storm looking toward the future.

There have been times that managing my outlook has been a challenge and it takes work to keep going. During those times it is a matter of pressing forward even if it is slowly rather than pausing and risk momentum. To me it is a mistake to fall into watching too much TV, losing yourself passively watching sports, relying on chemically altering the mind for pleasure and other negative escapism. Whatever your interests are, be they creative endeavors, active sports, outdoor pursuits, mental and intellectual improvement or any combination, figure out a way to engage in them. If money is tight or non-existent there is always something you can do for healthy gratification and positive interaction with people.

This social, economic and political upheaval will end some day and your future beyond that depends upon what you are doing during it.

Public Unions Vs. The Unorganized Taxpayers

There will be blood...

Public sector employees that are unionized have largely been able to sit out the recession and remain unaffected. They're out of touch with their employers, the unorganized taxpayer, having forgotten they work for the public and taxpayers and not the other way around. They are in the same privileged class as the bankers bailed out by those same taxpayers. As we move into structural unemployment along with high underemployment, with the remaining taxpayers footing the bill for overpaid public sector union employees, the likelihood of civil unrest between these two groups will become greater than we've already seen.

http://youtu.be/5CxP5clZf_g

Double Dip Storms & Tornadoes

Economic Meltdown?

http://youtu.be/H8GHuyngLZM


Video response to "Mortgage Foreclosure Tsunami 2011" http://youtu.be/Ze9MyGB2tBc 

Economic, Social and Geopolitical

Real Americans must create the Real Deal...

One of the major problems our country will be facing for the long term is not just unemployment but also underemployment. The two other major complications to our economy, the mortgage/foreclosure crisis and the personal and national debt problem are linked to them. Also in the combustible mixture is low Gross Domestic Product (GDP or simply "production") and a global currency crisis, creating an economic policy dilemma beyond the abilities of the current political and bureaucratic classes. In actuality they are exacerbating the situation.

Employers are reluctant to hire for a several reasons. Primarily it is the uncertainty of where the economy is heading in general, since 2010 appears to have been a mild recovery respite and we are headed for a Double Dip recession this year. The other is the uncertainty of what the Federal Reserve, Treasury, Administration and Congress is going to do. In the Great Depression employers were reluctant to hire because of so much unpredictable government interference, which is where we are today. What employment needs companies have, they are tending towards temporary or part-time employment to avoid long-term commitments to employees. Health Care Reform also has a lot to do with this, since they are unsure of what the voluminous regulations mean and if they are going to stand the way they are. It creates a reluctance to provide full-time employment with benefits within the country.

There are almost 17 million people who have been unemployed for 27 months or longer. Their unemployment insurance, if they were eligible for it, has been exhausted and since they have been out of the workforce for so long, the chances of them locating a job is not very high. Nineteen percent of the workforce, nine million people, is underemployed, working part-time or temporary jobs. There are 139 million people employed full-time, 58% of employed people, in the non-farm private sector and their average hours is now around 34 hours a week. Statistics are always suspect and can be skewed but there is every reason to believe these are in the ball park.

United States employers have been creating jobs but the vast majority of them have been in emerging economy countries such as India, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. One problem that is a potential liability for work created offshore, is with the uprising in Egypt and other countries along with global inflation, these jobs may disappear from these locations. If they are necessary jobs then they may be brought to the US but Americans will have to accept one cold reality, they will be working for lower wages than accustomed to.

Inflation is increasing because Bernanke made a bumbling professorial miscalculation. He did a second Quantitative Easing based on no-to-low inflation statistics that, well known now, were incorrect and based on inflation numbers adjusted downward by the federal government for at least 15 years. That means that inflation was much higher than stated by the government and QE2 is creating inflation as the Fed, Treasury and Administration wanted but at a much higher rate than they expected. In fact, we risk hyper-inflation, the very thing that started the Depression in Germany prior to the Great Depression in the United States, that conversely was caused by deflation. To put it simply, Bernanke feared deflation since it caused the Great Depression, wanted to create inflation but based it on incorrect data, now putting us at risk for an economic demise due to thoughtless unintended consequences. Worse, he was warned and arrogantly, as all Keynesians do, waved off those signalling trouble.

A real life example of hyper-inflation is the current US stock market that is at an all time high when the underlying economic fundamentals are all wrong. The stock market is manipulated by the Fed and Treasury buying stocks and bonds, in a fairly predictable fashion, inflating it out of proportion to actual price to earnings ratio and other indicators of individual stocks real worth. It is not a matter of if the market crashes but when and in what fashion since this is a new era. It is likely to be a cascading crash, with mini-crashes and mini-rallies over a period of several months until it reaches its natural bottom.

The combination of inflation and low production creates an economic conundrum that is difficult to get out of and usually creates stagflation as happened in the 1970s and we are probably already there. The unemployment and underemployment problem also creates a very low tax base and is translating into low revenues for all levels of government. Most state and local governments have budget problems and many are technically insolvent. Compounded with the out-of-whack stock market, the mortgage/foreclosure crisis, high personal, national and global debt ratios and international currency clashes, deeper trouble clearly lays ahead. There are those who refuse to believe it is very serious, some who are doomsayers, with many others in between.

My thought is that in the US we can expect significant stagflation for a long period of time (5-10 years) far deeper than the 1970s. We should be prepared for high inflation with a possible brief period of hyper-inflation and long term unemployment and underemployment. It is also my belief that this country will be able to pull out of it, unlike some other countries who will never fully recover, but it will require an awakening of a large segment of the population and some sacrifice and hard work. It is clear, as I've written before, that the government cannot pull us out of this, history indicates they actually make it worse, neither can corporations nor the uber-rich who have little incentive to do so. One clear advantage of low tax revenues is it creates a condition that makes it difficult for the government to operate and specifically to interfere with onerous over-regulation. This should make it easier for the American people to work for themselves, create their own businesses or become free agents to employers.

Theodore Roosevelt created his Square Deal, Franklin Roosevelt made a New Deal, Truman had the Fair Deal and now the American people must create the Real Deal.

Geography of the Mind

Overcoming the Misery Index...

The US Misery Index is arrived at by the formula of the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. In December 2010 the Misery Index was derived by the Unemployment Rate (9.4) plus the Inflation Rate (1.5) to equal 10.9. The formula was first put out in 1970 and created by the economist Arthur Okun. The high of the Misery Index was 21.98 in June 1980 and the low was 2.97 in July 1953. I will venture to say we are on the road to exceeding the high index.

That is not what is important. The Misery Index is a statistical measurement that given the circumstances of high unemployment and inflation of how miserable we could be if we allow the conditions to affect us. It is a negative measurement. My belief is the Misery Index is based on our happiness as consumers and not on our psychological, spiritual and physical well being. The chances that we are likely to be struggling during these times and having difficulty is greater since we are going through a historical transitional period, forcing us to re-prioritize what is truly important. It is very likely those conditions could adversely influence us but our response is critical to our well-being. One key to keep in mind is that conditions are never permanent and always subject to change. If the index is going higher, we need to prepare ourselves mentally for the challenge.

There is no easy pop psychology answer on how we can prepare ourselves, how to respond under these conditions and what we do to rise above adversity. Oprah and Dr. Phil can't help us. Everyone is different and uses individual coping mechanisms and we must each come up with our own answers. The purpose here is not to give advice or resolve in one easy step how to remain strong in a weak economic world but to point out that strength is required.

Strength is required because I also believe we are heading for a clash of economic, social and political values and change that is not going to occur without a fight. If we are ever to reclaim the "American Way" of entrepreneurial individualism after almost one hundred years of creeping "progressive" socialism, sneaking up like a cat burglar, in collusion with the original collectivists, corrupt corporatism elitists, then we need psychological power as well as physical endurance for the fight.

Reference: The US Misery Index

Chart: The Economist online 01/24/11

You Can Quote Me On That

In an economic downturn...

Part Two

Follow up to blog on 01/22/11

During the seventies and most of the eighties I held a job that I often found mindless, stifling and sometimes hated but I needed it and there were no jobs in the area that were worth taking that paid any better. More than anyone I understand the struggle of holding an underpaid and not-very-challenging job with managers that didn't qualify for the word "leader," since they were barely able to supervise, much less manage and lead. Their best and only weapon was negative reinforcement and as a low level night supervisor I had to put up with a lot and constantly figure out how to appeal to their best interests to get them to do the right thing for the evening and night shift workers and customers. It was a constant struggle battling old mindsets of "we've always done it this way" from a previous era when things had changed. They were from a pick-up-the-handset-phone clerical environment loaded with paper records and we were in one of the first computerized, centralized technical support centers that required a different set of rules. Most of which had to be made up as we went along because everything was new and piloting without instrumentation.

It was another period of disruptive change that I welcomed but most of the people that were directing me did not. Since my alternatives weren't great I stuck with it and the key to more than surviving it, thriving in it, was viewing it as a chance to learn how to change others perceptions and behaviors. I reinvented myself as change agent before it became a recognized term, keeping my individuality intact, taking a chance at being a pioneer. There were other opportunities I saw in it also. It was an irregular income due to hours being varied and often cut back but had very good benefits, including full tuition to any school of my choice, which allowed me time to do other things a regular eight to five, 40 hour a week job wouldn't have permitted. I used the time outside of work to further my education, do a lot of creative things I was interested in and learn innovative financing of my life. 

There also was always the threat of layoffs. When I wrote in my previous blog entry that it perplexed me why people who have jobs now complain so much and expect a pay raise, I knew exactly what I was saying. I get what having a job in an economic downturn that isn't exactly desirable is like. My perspective now comes from staring at statistics of millions of Americans being unemployed for up to three years, eating their life savings away, uncertain of the future and really not prepared for the New Economy. Therefore when I hear former co-workers complain about having to do more work, with higher health premiums and no raises but unlikely to be laid off, I understand their frustration but their anger is misplaced and somewhat disingenuous, riddled with "they owe me" entitlement.

I learned a very long time ago "don't love the company because it won't love you back." However, being angry about the situation only turns on you though, since the company doesn't care, they only want you to produce. What the individual does have is the power to figure out how to personally deal and cope with the conundrum in a way that doesn't eat them up inside, since that always ends up displaying itself on negative presentation of themselves to the outside world, making matters worse. It is the law of bad returns.

Fortunately I have a job now that I like, although it's real economic benefit is relatively inexpensive, good health care benefits, since the pay is low and the hours vary from 20 hours a week up to 40-60, depending on the time of year and the schedule of non-traditional hours changes weekly. It's a juggling act of money but I use the time off to my best advantage. I learned from my lessons of decades ago to save money when I work a lot of hours, since I have little free time to spend it anyway, saving it for the lean months when I do have more spare time. Everyone I work with now took this job for the same reasons, they had lost their previous job and we're all glad to have some income and benefits.

It's also far better than the job I had right before the crash, that I disliked almost every minute of, at a renown company that now has the distinction of being disreputable and is laying off again by the thousands. I took my current job because it was the best possible solution to the dilemma of few employment opportunities. Count me as underemployed and making the best of it. I recognize I'm fortunate to have two other small incomes, not enough to live on, this is a supplement but provides for me, besides benefits, other intangible things. It gives me the opportunity to learn something new, get back into a field I once was in, further my education some more and time to figure out where to go next. That might be my own business, some other method to get additional income on the side and most importantly, allowing me to continue stretching my creative side and expressing myself.

In many ways I recognize that I am fortunate but I also believe you create your own destiny and luck by taking what you've learned in the past and keeping your eyes wide open for new probabilities. Good fortune very often isn't mere luck but in the outlook you take on life and how you proceed with each challenge as they arise.

You Can Quote Me On That

In an economic downturn...

My working life started in the late sixties and employment in my younger life spanned the seventies all the way through to the economic recession of 1982-83. By that time I was almost thirty and had gotten used to the idea that I couldn't control the macro economy and long prior made the decision that I could control my own micro economic destiny. It wasn't always easy or uplifting, since my working world wasn't what I envisioned, somehow I managed though and learned from it.

Ringing in my ears from the beginning was my father and my aunt's refrain "In an economic downturn, get a job, any job and keep that job, until the economy clearly gets better." It was a result of their coming of age during the 1930s Depression. It was reinforced by mother's chorus "Don't complain and be thankful you have a job when so many people are out of work." It was complemented by the common saying of the time "This is a recession if you have a job, a depression if you don't."

I'm mystified in this current economic era why so many people who do have a job, complain about every little thing and especially about not getting a pay raise. I am bewildered that someone who has maintained a job, didn't get laid off or a salary reduction, has missed that there are a lot of people who would take their job in minute at a lower wage. It is also enigmatic to me why so many people feel they are entitled to a job or pay better than they are skilled for and won't take a job that is available. No one is overqualified in this economy, we all live in post-Katrina New Orleans now. Are they so clueless about the difficulty of millions of unemployed and underemployed people, that would like a job, any job and keep it, at any pay?

If you're employed and dissatisfied, please quit and discover what so many unemployed and underemployed people have. It will change your outlook on life, I guarantee it.

Thinking Out Loud

2011...

A new decade in a new economic, social and geopolitical world.

The year 2010 turned a page into a new chapter of my life in momentous ways that I did not expect but could not have hoped for a better outcome. Life is much better now. I clearly remember New Year's Eve and Day 2010 because it was a long and difficult weekend with a pending decision weighing heavily on my mind. On Monday, January 4th, I went into work for a few hours and then confirmed my instincts by resigning from my job. It was the right choice but difficult in these economic times and seemingly unwise from a personal financial standpoint. I had to do it to be free to move on in a new year, the last in a Biblically epic long decade in my life, that began in 2000 when my life was radically altered also by a work decision, one I did not choose. Like hundreds of thousands of others I was "separated" from the company I worked for almost 30 years.

The Economic Crisis started early for me, in hindsight I am very glad, it gave me a long running head start on what was to follow in this country and is not over yet.

This past year has been extremes of highs and lows, ups and downs and everything in between. At times I was in complete control of my situation and in others I was not. In the dead heat of summer I was struck by a virus that kept me bed-ridden for two weeks and during that same month I serendipitously found a job that suits me perfectly. It was a classic time that epitomized the characteristics of the entire year, simultaneously flowing triumph and disaster.

In the end it has been a richly rewarding and fulfilling year furnishing me with optimism, positive thinking and confidence. Regardless of what 2011 and the next decade brings I have at last returned to the summer roots of my inner self and in harmony with my true nature, after a decade of a mostly estranged winter. I say that with an assurance, that I did not have but was yearning for, this time last year. I knew then where I had been for a decade and did not want to continue but rather move on to another journey and I can say that I have.

One of the best decisions I made at the end of 2009 was to set a goal to begin posting to this website blog daily and start creating and uploading videos on YouTube again. It was part of documenting my life that served as a release valve, a steadying constant, as well as a confidence builder and confirming my ability to be original and self-reliant. Through expressing myself it reminded me I am a unique individual in my own right.

Another good determination made this past spring was to get off most of the social web, especially Twitter and Facebook. I never cared for Facebook and was reluctantly coaxed into it and Twitter became a time-killer, full of unwashed masses bubbling out a constant stream of babbling junk. That is not a judgment on other people who choose to be on those sites, those sites just weren't right for me at the time or even now. That choice, by it's very nature, also meant limiting my interaction online but I've found the remaining interaction to be of better quality.

The time I had spent online and with other things I chose to stop doing was spent reading good books in a self-designed "Great Books" list. What a wonderful determination that has turned out to be. My mind has not only been enriched but it has had an unexpected but welcome calming of my soul.

"He not busy being born is busy dying"

How very fortuitous it has turned out to be that on that day, Friday the 13th in October 2000, I was surplussed and laid off from the company I had worked for since high school, through my college degrees and experienced my thirties and forties. My involuntary "separation" (their term) actually was not accompanied with anxiety but rather rejoicing at being freed from the institutional madness of the only place I had really ever worked. That does not mean there was not angst of learning as I traversed down the road in the decade ahead. It prepared me in too many ways to enumerate to cope with the new world of 21st century economic, social and geopolitical circumstances.

Although this year and this decade has ended with a finality specific to me, it does not mean an end to always learning and facing new challenges moving forward. Now I look ahead to them with a renewed freedom I once had and have revived. It is certain that the Great Disruption that became obvious to the world in mid-2007 will continue and perpetuate the economic distress that challenges us all and disturbs other social institutions. We live in an exciting time as our universe is reborn anew once again, following in the footprints of world history. That does not bother me since I know that as an individual I have the determination, will and ability to overthrow adversity. Also I have a perception of others difficulties and an ability to understand what some may need help in learning to cope for themselves.

If there is anything I am able to impart to others, it is that we all have something within us that allows us to rise above and overcome. My hope is that in my own small way I can do that.

"He not being busy born is busy dying" quote from "It's Alright Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)" [Dylan]

Only In America

On the onset of 2011...

Many Americans have lost their confidence, one of the traits we are most known for. Our moxie has lost it's nerve and it's easy to understand why with the economic, social and political problems we are facing that, alas, are intertwined. Then again, many other Americans are in a happy recovery mode, which somehow seems surreal and more like denial.

I think I know why there are these two juxtaposing viewpoints.

Read or watch any media outlet and you can find both good news and bad news about the economy, social problems and political issues. Take your pick which you want to believe. My favorite example is the seemingly opposing stories, very often on the same page, headlined something like "Unemployment is down and job outlook improving" and another story with the seeming flip side headline "Personal income is down."

Well, yes...both are true because some people are getting jobs but they are lower paying. It's good news that is not coupled with the countering bad news in the same story. The media outlets spit the news in half chunks. Some people read the chunk they want to and others read both and either make connections between the two or they don't, for a variety of reasons.

The actuality is that we face significant social, economic and political problems in the coming year. The sovereign debt crisis in other countries will affect us, unemployment is still high and stagnant, the mortgage/foreclosure crisis is unresolved, debt overhang threatens financial institutions, we're at peak oil, there are global currency problems and the stock market is flirting with highs far too dangerous for the underlying fundamentals of the economy are among the major ones. The biggest problem is that postponing the inevitable by "Quantitative Easing" and keeping the money printing presses rolling, isn't working quite as hoped, preventing us from getting on with clearing up the certain aftermath that is coming after it all inevitably falls apart, which is likely to occur in 2011.

Which leads back to confidence, which I think we can regain. My belief is Americans are struggling with confidence because they feel a sense of pending doom and rightfully want to get it over with. The American way is to face a challenge head on and overcome it, not dilly dally with it like some European diplomat. The dominoes are lined up and with one slip they all fall. Let it happen so we may commence with picking up the pieces and rebuilding a real and sustainable recovery.

That's the kind of confidence and determination that Americans are best at. The malaise is caused by the political and business classes stretching out to maintain the old while the new is overdue waiting to be born.

Only In America

The crisis of missed opportunity...

We live during an economic crisis that is as devastating as the Great Depression of the 1930s. The difference is we entered into this crisis with much better housing, clothing, food supplies and the cushioning blows of unemployment insurance, severance pay and other safety nets. This means the initial  shock was distressing but not as dramatic as the Thirties and the residual hangover will not seem as severe and less uncomfortable. That is not to say all is well with everyone or that more is not on the way.

The long term effect of this great economic downturn is overcoming high unemployment, debt overhang and the length of time to fully recover, which has every potential to make this period collectively dreary. We must individually fight colorlessness of a flat time span to make it interesting to ourselves, making an effort to overcome potential personal lifelessness. Opportunities are fewer and farther in between now and will be in the upcoming era and every chance missed is a mini-crisis of itself. It is key to take every option to learn something new, make enriching friendships, accept a job that may not be permanent or ideal, travel or see something different, whatever presents itself and take advantage of the chance while you can. You never know when learning something, such as creating a website, fixing a bicycle, cooking an omelet, participating in a focus group, learning to use an e-reader, teaching a kid to tie his shoe, taking a community class or going back to school, you get the idea...may become a skill used in or to gain employment or create your own enterprise.

Over four years ago when I started getting interested in YouTube I didn't plan on learning to make, edit and upload videos, renew my photography interest and start a new blog. After I lost my main source of income in 2007, a full-time job I'd held a long time, I used the activities of all of them to occupy my time and gain some more skills in using the internet and get involved in the social web. I took the time to learn how to use a smartphone to its fullest, rather than just as a tool for work. I had no idea then that those skills would later impress an employer to hire me during a down employment market.

Opportunities usually don't present themselves as connections to something to advance yourself, your future and make your life better. Keep your eyes on the road and wide open.

Thinking Out Loud

Why Unemployment Insurance Can Not Be Extended...

You Can Quote Me On That

We're tinkering with the steering wheel when the engine needs repair...

All of the printing of money with Quantitative Easing, Treasury Bond purchasing, tax schemes and budget cutting, extending unemployment benefits, mortgage work-out plans, social programs, ad nauseam, cannot resolve our overall economic problems unless two underlying factors are realistically addressed:

1. High unemployment due to mismatch of the skills of many job-seekers and what employers need now and will need in the future. This requires people becoming cutting-edge skilled, free-agents and/or self-employed. Eight million jobs aren't coming back because they aren't needed any more, we should be preparing for what is and will be needed. The economy can only be stimulated with significant earned income

2.   The foreclosure and indebtedness problem of individuals, organizations and government. How the lenders reconcile what people owe and how much houses are worth and deal with uncollateralized debt and collect it, is still an open question that must be resolved, in order for any across-the-board financial restructuring to occur. If a large segment of the population has no earned income due to unemployment, how do they repay the debt?

The Economy and Me

Last gasp in last quarter of year?...

I'm an optimist who maintains a healthy dose of skepticism. 

I work with a small group of seven people, including the working manager, who works with us as well as manages our location and group. We are just about the only company that does what we do, which is provide testing for professional, technical and educational credentialing boards and organizations to a wide variety of professions, schools and industries. We have never been busier than the past few months and are scheduled out until the end of December. Earlier in the year we worked 20 hour weeks and now it's as much as we can stand.

I believe in hope and change for the better. I also believe in reality and being prepared. I don't quite trust the sudden influx of work with as high as unemployment is. I want to believe it's a good sign and will last but will the people who are our clients still have work themselves in a few months? I know doctors and dentists who are concerned because their practices are slowing down, people who work in retail who say their stores daily net is dropping, stock brokers, mortgage loan officers and real estate folks who are not experiencing much work, friends who work in small companies and large corporations who are nervous about their jobs because work has thinned out. On the other hand I know people who work in machine shops and warehouses who are as busy at work as I am. It makes me want to believe they are filling the pipeline for a recovering economy, yet I'm skeptical. It could be an end of the year flash in the pan in hopes of holiday season sales or end of year profit boosts.

I'm not quite believing that it is the beginning of recovery because fundamental Leading Economic Indicators aren't that sound and it seems clear we have a mushrooming foreclosure document crisis that threatens financial institutions. I'm also confused that there seem to be more job ads lately, albeit for relatively low paying jobs, with the hitch that the same ones keep appearing over and over again and they don't seem like stable work. Could it be some of that stimulus money is finally being sent to other than public sector and union workers, conveniently just before an election? Is some of that Quantitative Easing raising hopes in the short term? Or perhaps we are having a one or two quarter weak recovery that is heading for a "double dip?"

It feels too much like no doc plastic and not real money to me. I think I'll maintain my wits about me and make the most of what's available to me while I can.

Real Estate Bubble Chart

We have not reached bottom...


Don't be fooled by the psychology of the market. People are clinging to the hope of a real estate recovery. We are not yet at the bottom.

from Irving House Blog

We are on the verge of a global currency crisis, stock market crash, bank failures, government insolvencies and it's not the bottom for real estate. The best way to face multiple crisis is to look straight at them with clarity and no fear. It is the only option for resolution, which will take effort, time and creative thinking.

Word of the Day: Word Spy

NEET...

n. A young person who isn't working, in school, or in a training program. [from the phrase Not in Employment, Education or Training.]

Source and Example Citations: http://www.wordspy.com/words/NEET.asp

Paul McFedries
Word Spy

Unfair Labor Practices

Non-union workers paid minimum wage by union organizers for shame on Walgreens campaign...

____________________________________________________________


Unions Protesting Churches in California
by Ryan P. Dixon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apmn4bXOVLU

http://www.youtube.com/ryanpdixon

On Extending Unemployment Benefits

Unanswered questions...

Millions of people became involuntarily unemployed in 2007-2008, early in the economic crisis, and have long ago exhausted unemployment benefits and any extension they may have received at that time. They have dropped off the unemployment rolls and are no longer statistically counted as unemployed. Additionally many people have never qualified for unemployment benefits due to the professions they were in, for example real estate agents and mortgage brokers, also hard hit by unemployment.

An extension of people currently on benefits seems to beg the questions...what about those that have already dropped off? Also, since we now know unemployment is a long term, vexing problem, do we continue to extend indefinitely those on unemployment now and leave those already dropped off the rolls in the lurch? When do we cut off benefits? What about the massive federal deficit? Do we really want to create a permanent special underclass of people on unemployment, which in turn becomes basically welfare? These are hard questions that must be asked.

Video is from MSNBC's Hardball:

Jeffrey A. Miron is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and the Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Department of Economics at Harvard University.

Christian Weller is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and a Public Policy professor at the University of Massachusetts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp8utMz6zP8

http://www.youtube.com/catoinstitutevideo