1/24/11
1/22/11
You Can Quote Me On That
In an economic downturn...
My working life started in the late sixties and employment in my younger life spanned the seventies all the way through to the economic recession of 1982-83. By that time I was almost thirty and had gotten used to the idea that I couldn't control the macro economy and long prior made the decision that I could control my own micro economic destiny. It wasn't always easy or uplifting, since my working world wasn't what I envisioned, somehow I managed though and learned from it.
Ringing in my ears from the beginning was my father and my aunt's refrain "In an economic downturn, get a job, any job and keep that job, until the economy clearly gets better." It was a result of their coming of age during the 1930s Depression. It was reinforced by mother's chorus "Don't complain and be thankful you have a job when so many people are out of work." It was complemented by the common saying of the time "This is a recession if you have a job, a depression if you don't."
I'm mystified in this current economic era why so many people who do have a job, complain about every little thing and especially about not getting a pay raise. I am bewildered that someone who has maintained a job, didn't get laid off or a salary reduction, has missed that there are a lot of people who would take their job in minute at a lower wage. It is also enigmatic to me why so many people feel they are entitled to a job or pay better than they are skilled for and won't take a job that is available. No one is overqualified in this economy, we all live in post-Katrina New Orleans now. Are they so clueless about the difficulty of millions of unemployed and underemployed people, that would like a job, any job and keep it, at any pay?
If you're employed and dissatisfied, please quit and discover what so many unemployed and underemployed people have. It will change your outlook on life, I guarantee it.
My working life started in the late sixties and employment in my younger life spanned the seventies all the way through to the economic recession of 1982-83. By that time I was almost thirty and had gotten used to the idea that I couldn't control the macro economy and long prior made the decision that I could control my own micro economic destiny. It wasn't always easy or uplifting, since my working world wasn't what I envisioned, somehow I managed though and learned from it.
Ringing in my ears from the beginning was my father and my aunt's refrain "In an economic downturn, get a job, any job and keep that job, until the economy clearly gets better." It was a result of their coming of age during the 1930s Depression. It was reinforced by mother's chorus "Don't complain and be thankful you have a job when so many people are out of work." It was complemented by the common saying of the time "This is a recession if you have a job, a depression if you don't."
I'm mystified in this current economic era why so many people who do have a job, complain about every little thing and especially about not getting a pay raise. I am bewildered that someone who has maintained a job, didn't get laid off or a salary reduction, has missed that there are a lot of people who would take their job in minute at a lower wage. It is also enigmatic to me why so many people feel they are entitled to a job or pay better than they are skilled for and won't take a job that is available. No one is overqualified in this economy, we all live in post-Katrina New Orleans now. Are they so clueless about the difficulty of millions of unemployed and underemployed people, that would like a job, any job and keep it, at any pay?
If you're employed and dissatisfied, please quit and discover what so many unemployed and underemployed people have. It will change your outlook on life, I guarantee it.
1/21/11
Thinking Out Loud
The Bitch(ing) is Back...
Vlog by Mike (Aspiring46er)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6nQdBhjQsQ&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/user/Aspiring46er
Vlog by Mike (Aspiring46er)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6nQdBhjQsQ&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/user/Aspiring46er
1/20/11
1/19/11
1/18/11
Economic, Social and Geopolitical
Seventies Redux...
Best case scenario: We don't become like the UK in the seventies.
Worst case scenario: Hyperinflation due to full blown currency crisis.
Optimum scenario: We make the best of whatever happens.
This is not a happy blog but a hefty dose of reality with a heaping helping of positive hope at the ending. The challenges our economy faces in order for the mild recovery that occurred in 2010 to continue are myriad and not one of them must falter in order for the others to remain intact. They're economic indicator dominoes. They require a vastly improved employment outlook, GDP far greater than the two percent we're at currently, a stable currency, resolution of the mortgage foreclosure crisis, rapid debt deleveraging with simultaneous consumer spending, an increase in manufacturing and companies holding cash investing in equipment and new services. The reader gets the general idea. This means at best we're likely in for a stagnating economy, often referred to as stagflation, due to the certainty that unemployment will remain high, debt ratios will not be reduced and productivity won't increase enough, along with the wrong kind of inflation. We are already beginning to experience this type of inflation, in the products we most need, not the macroeconomic type of inflation the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is lamely trying to coax. He is playing a high risk game of quantitative easing, chancing hyperinflation in a quest to avoid the dicey pitfall of deflation.
The price and problems of commodities are telegraphing to us what we are incrementally seeing in our daily lives and will loom larger as 2011 progresses. Oil, steel, lumber, corn and wheat, utilities (electric and gas), copper, rare earth and other commodities are gaining in price along with looming currency problems, ours and other countries. This translates to everyday consumers as higher prices for food, gas, durable goods such as household items, clothing and personal products. It is no accident that the major wireless carriers are reducing perks and raising prices, not necessarily due to their costs going up much right now, it's because they know we've become dependent on them. Heed the economic signal these corporations are sending that outmatches the one broadcasting over their airwaves.
In other words expect inflation for things we consider absolute necessity goods and have a real need to use. Products such as gas to get to work if we have a job and food for nourishment and clothes to keep us warm and dry or cool and comfortable.
Our worst danger is devaluation of the US dollar which puts us at risk of not being the preferred reserve (anchor) currency of the world. China is making a serious bid for the Yuan to become the reserve currency within the decade. Then all bets are off. Until the late sixties the UK's pound sterling was the number one reserve currency until the US dollar became the preferred currency. Britain suffered greatly during the 1970s and we would do well to mind what happened there at that time. They have never fully recovered, since after Thatcher's valiant and mostly successful effort to return the UK to a more normal economy, Tony Blair and the Labour party then destroyed advances for short term political gains. The reader should be hearing a familiar ringing in the ears here.
Simultaneously, with the probable exclusion of items of precious metals and gems such as jewelry (an exception for several reasons), coins and bullion, most items that are not really necessary such as designer label clothes, brand name fine furniture, high end appliances and electronics, prices will drop. Since consumers will have to spend money on the absolute necessities, the lower cost of these goods will be irrelevant, since they'll be out of reach for most people.
The interesting thing about this era is that many of the things, bottled water for instance, that people now consider necessities will quickly be reduced to unnecessary goods in the blink of an eye, in a characteristically true American way. For example bottled water will go out of fashion because it will become more expensive but people will state the reason they no longer consume it is for environmental reasons, citing plastic bottles, carbon burning transportation, energy used to extract it from it's source, etc. The real reason will be that the outlay for more important things, basics like fuel, food and tap water, will take priority in a squeezed budget.
On the flip side, expect deflation in things we may have once considered necessary, have become inexpensive but not as necessary as we thought, in context of what we really need. We'll discover that the label on clothing or if the veggie's soil was organic is irrelevant.
An example is fuel costs will be high and hybrid cars will be expensive but you will be able to buy a gas guzzler on the cheap.
We may find ourselves, along with $8 a gallon gasoline, in a situation where electric power is rotated among substations or brownouts and wireless connections will be disabled during certain periods of time. In denial this could happen? Again, look to Britain in the seventies, where similar things occurred. Some people won't go to work due to wages versus cost of getting there. No US Mail, UPS or FedEx deliveries, because the earnings won't be enough to pay the costs of delivering the goods. A new found dislike for unions will be discovered amongst people who were previously neutral or pro on the topic of unionism. Police and fire unions will strike to demand they get pay raises to equal their cost of living. Think not? Think again.
We should learn from the past, relying on ourselves and each other.
Our best hope is we will be smart enough to avoid these confrontations and difficulties and learn to conserve and use wisely what we have and improvise what we don't. More importantly learn the value of cooperation and socializing with good people who will exchange one good turn for another. The art of bargaining is not as disdained in many cultures as much as it is in the United States but that could change. That is my hope but so far I'm not banking on it. After experiencing 25 years of unprecedented prosperity, we have become entrenched with a sense of entitlement, several generations have unrealistic expectations that it should always be that way. History does not bear that out.
The worthwhile benefit that I sincerely hope is this coming decade will serve as a catalyst for a significant number of people to reinvent themselves with the ingenuity this country was once attributed with. To be sure a lot of Americans will remain stuck in a rut of their own making, their choice, not collateral damage. For others that are suffering in ways not of their making, we should lend a helping hand. I'm hoping that in the long term though many will learn the creative skill of more than making do and improving what they have into something greater. Hopefully, much like a generation or two that was shaped by the Great Depression and World War II, we will learn through hard times to make life better, gaining values that stick with us for a lifetime and pass them on.
True, this thought is quite optimistic coupled with positive thinking. It is held together by hope and belief in the higher nature of many Americans, who in the long view of our history, get going when life gets down to the nitty gritty.
Best case scenario: We don't become like the UK in the seventies.
Worst case scenario: Hyperinflation due to full blown currency crisis.
Optimum scenario: We make the best of whatever happens.
This is not a happy blog but a hefty dose of reality with a heaping helping of positive hope at the ending. The challenges our economy faces in order for the mild recovery that occurred in 2010 to continue are myriad and not one of them must falter in order for the others to remain intact. They're economic indicator dominoes. They require a vastly improved employment outlook, GDP far greater than the two percent we're at currently, a stable currency, resolution of the mortgage foreclosure crisis, rapid debt deleveraging with simultaneous consumer spending, an increase in manufacturing and companies holding cash investing in equipment and new services. The reader gets the general idea. This means at best we're likely in for a stagnating economy, often referred to as stagflation, due to the certainty that unemployment will remain high, debt ratios will not be reduced and productivity won't increase enough, along with the wrong kind of inflation. We are already beginning to experience this type of inflation, in the products we most need, not the macroeconomic type of inflation the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is lamely trying to coax. He is playing a high risk game of quantitative easing, chancing hyperinflation in a quest to avoid the dicey pitfall of deflation.
The price and problems of commodities are telegraphing to us what we are incrementally seeing in our daily lives and will loom larger as 2011 progresses. Oil, steel, lumber, corn and wheat, utilities (electric and gas), copper, rare earth and other commodities are gaining in price along with looming currency problems, ours and other countries. This translates to everyday consumers as higher prices for food, gas, durable goods such as household items, clothing and personal products. It is no accident that the major wireless carriers are reducing perks and raising prices, not necessarily due to their costs going up much right now, it's because they know we've become dependent on them. Heed the economic signal these corporations are sending that outmatches the one broadcasting over their airwaves.
In other words expect inflation for things we consider absolute necessity goods and have a real need to use. Products such as gas to get to work if we have a job and food for nourishment and clothes to keep us warm and dry or cool and comfortable.
Our worst danger is devaluation of the US dollar which puts us at risk of not being the preferred reserve (anchor) currency of the world. China is making a serious bid for the Yuan to become the reserve currency within the decade. Then all bets are off. Until the late sixties the UK's pound sterling was the number one reserve currency until the US dollar became the preferred currency. Britain suffered greatly during the 1970s and we would do well to mind what happened there at that time. They have never fully recovered, since after Thatcher's valiant and mostly successful effort to return the UK to a more normal economy, Tony Blair and the Labour party then destroyed advances for short term political gains. The reader should be hearing a familiar ringing in the ears here.
Simultaneously, with the probable exclusion of items of precious metals and gems such as jewelry (an exception for several reasons), coins and bullion, most items that are not really necessary such as designer label clothes, brand name fine furniture, high end appliances and electronics, prices will drop. Since consumers will have to spend money on the absolute necessities, the lower cost of these goods will be irrelevant, since they'll be out of reach for most people.
The interesting thing about this era is that many of the things, bottled water for instance, that people now consider necessities will quickly be reduced to unnecessary goods in the blink of an eye, in a characteristically true American way. For example bottled water will go out of fashion because it will become more expensive but people will state the reason they no longer consume it is for environmental reasons, citing plastic bottles, carbon burning transportation, energy used to extract it from it's source, etc. The real reason will be that the outlay for more important things, basics like fuel, food and tap water, will take priority in a squeezed budget.
On the flip side, expect deflation in things we may have once considered necessary, have become inexpensive but not as necessary as we thought, in context of what we really need. We'll discover that the label on clothing or if the veggie's soil was organic is irrelevant.
An example is fuel costs will be high and hybrid cars will be expensive but you will be able to buy a gas guzzler on the cheap.
We may find ourselves, along with $8 a gallon gasoline, in a situation where electric power is rotated among substations or brownouts and wireless connections will be disabled during certain periods of time. In denial this could happen? Again, look to Britain in the seventies, where similar things occurred. Some people won't go to work due to wages versus cost of getting there. No US Mail, UPS or FedEx deliveries, because the earnings won't be enough to pay the costs of delivering the goods. A new found dislike for unions will be discovered amongst people who were previously neutral or pro on the topic of unionism. Police and fire unions will strike to demand they get pay raises to equal their cost of living. Think not? Think again.
We should learn from the past, relying on ourselves and each other.
Our best hope is we will be smart enough to avoid these confrontations and difficulties and learn to conserve and use wisely what we have and improvise what we don't. More importantly learn the value of cooperation and socializing with good people who will exchange one good turn for another. The art of bargaining is not as disdained in many cultures as much as it is in the United States but that could change. That is my hope but so far I'm not banking on it. After experiencing 25 years of unprecedented prosperity, we have become entrenched with a sense of entitlement, several generations have unrealistic expectations that it should always be that way. History does not bear that out.
The worthwhile benefit that I sincerely hope is this coming decade will serve as a catalyst for a significant number of people to reinvent themselves with the ingenuity this country was once attributed with. To be sure a lot of Americans will remain stuck in a rut of their own making, their choice, not collateral damage. For others that are suffering in ways not of their making, we should lend a helping hand. I'm hoping that in the long term though many will learn the creative skill of more than making do and improving what they have into something greater. Hopefully, much like a generation or two that was shaped by the Great Depression and World War II, we will learn through hard times to make life better, gaining values that stick with us for a lifetime and pass them on.
True, this thought is quite optimistic coupled with positive thinking. It is held together by hope and belief in the higher nature of many Americans, who in the long view of our history, get going when life gets down to the nitty gritty.
1/17/11
Only In America
On Civil Rights...
"Show Your Rights!"
As an Arizonan, for reasons anyone can look up in a Wikipedia article on Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, I have an aversion to discussing the merits of whether or not there should be a Federal national holiday bearing his name. Nor will I make any comment related to the recent tragedy in Tucson, plenty of others will do that. The point to me has always been, if anyone deserved a day of commemoration for acts that brought about a huge permanent shift in civil rights, it is Dr. King. He is a human symbol of a historical development well worth observing. What I believe many people still don't comprehend is that not only did he fight discrimination and win desegregation and equal rights for black people in the United States, he permanently affirmed in American and international culture the idea that civil rights are for all people. He enduringly affixed the concept that civil rights are an "inalienable right" for everyone, through his leadership, by using the nonviolent and legal system methods he chose to achieve his goals.
Much can be written about how activists have taken his work into social and political science, turning what he accomplished on its head, misusing it for their grinding agendas. In the United States I am referring primarily to the use of the legislative or administrative process of government to reach the objective of affirmative action, rather than the US Constitution to demand equality through the legal system. The former involves the political and bureaucratic classes constructing artificial contrivances that always seem to end up removing barriers for some and creating them for others, that can also be re-legislated in a more harmful direction. The latter assures permanent resolution through definitive court decisions which are difficult to reverse and applies equitably to everyman.
Far better in my mind to argue your case through the US Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the US Constitution, to attain your rights.
"Show Your Rights!"
As an Arizonan, for reasons anyone can look up in a Wikipedia article on Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, I have an aversion to discussing the merits of whether or not there should be a Federal national holiday bearing his name. Nor will I make any comment related to the recent tragedy in Tucson, plenty of others will do that. The point to me has always been, if anyone deserved a day of commemoration for acts that brought about a huge permanent shift in civil rights, it is Dr. King. He is a human symbol of a historical development well worth observing. What I believe many people still don't comprehend is that not only did he fight discrimination and win desegregation and equal rights for black people in the United States, he permanently affirmed in American and international culture the idea that civil rights are for all people. He enduringly affixed the concept that civil rights are an "inalienable right" for everyone, through his leadership, by using the nonviolent and legal system methods he chose to achieve his goals.
Much can be written about how activists have taken his work into social and political science, turning what he accomplished on its head, misusing it for their grinding agendas. In the United States I am referring primarily to the use of the legislative or administrative process of government to reach the objective of affirmative action, rather than the US Constitution to demand equality through the legal system. The former involves the political and bureaucratic classes constructing artificial contrivances that always seem to end up removing barriers for some and creating them for others, that can also be re-legislated in a more harmful direction. The latter assures permanent resolution through definitive court decisions which are difficult to reverse and applies equitably to everyman.
Far better in my mind to argue your case through the US Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the US Constitution, to attain your rights.
US Bill of Rights
- First Amendment – Establishment Clause, Free Exercise Clause; freedom of speech, of the press, and of assembly; right to petition
- Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
- A well regulated Militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed. [5]
- Third Amendment – Protection from quartering of troops.
- No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.
- Fourth Amendment – Protection from unreasonable search and seizure.
- The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
- No person shall be held to answer for any capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
- Sixth Amendment – Trial by jury and rights of the accused; Confrontation Clause, speedy trial, public trial, right to counsel
- In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defense.
- Seventh Amendment – Civil trial by jury.
- In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.
- Eighth Amendment – Prohibition of excessive bail and cruel and unusual punishment.
- Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.
- Ninth Amendment – Protection of rights not specifically enumerated in the Constitution.
- The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
- Tenth Amendment – Powers of States and people.
- The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
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