see Turning a new leaf for a new year on 01/14/11
With a nod to rock and confusion.
1/28/11
Arizona Landscape
A tree buds and blooms for a new year...
see Turning a new leaf for a new year on 01/14/11
With a nod to rock and confusion.
see Turning a new leaf for a new year on 01/14/11
With a nod to rock and confusion.
1/26/11
Geography of the Mind
Overcoming the Misery Index...
The US Misery Index is arrived at by the formula of the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. In December 2010 the Misery Index was derived by the Unemployment Rate (9.4) plus the Inflation Rate (1.5) to equal 10.9. The formula was first put out in 1970 and created by the economist Arthur Okun. The high of the Misery Index was 21.98 in June 1980 and the low was 2.97 in July 1953. I will venture to say we are on the road to exceeding the high index.
That is not what is important. The Misery Index is a statistical measurement that given the circumstances of high unemployment and inflation of how miserable we could be if we allow the conditions to affect us. It is a negative measurement. My belief is the Misery Index is based on our happiness as consumers and not on our psychological, spiritual and physical well being. The chances that we are likely to be struggling during these times and having difficulty is greater since we are going through a historical transitional period, forcing us to re-prioritize what is truly important. It is very likely those conditions could adversely influence us but our response is critical to our well-being. One key to keep in mind is that conditions are never permanent and always subject to change. If the index is going higher, we need to prepare ourselves mentally for the challenge.
There is no easy pop psychology answer on how we can prepare ourselves, how to respond under these conditions and what we do to rise above adversity. Oprah and Dr. Phil can't help us. Everyone is different and uses individual coping mechanisms and we must each come up with our own answers. The purpose here is not to give advice or resolve in one easy step how to remain strong in a weak economic world but to point out that strength is required.
Strength is required because I also believe we are heading for a clash of economic, social and political values and change that is not going to occur without a fight. If we are ever to reclaim the "American Way" of entrepreneurial individualism after almost one hundred years of creeping "progressive" socialism, sneaking up like a cat burglar, in collusion with the original collectivists, corrupt corporatism elitists, then we need psychological power as well as physical endurance for the fight.
Reference: The US Misery Index
The US Misery Index is arrived at by the formula of the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. In December 2010 the Misery Index was derived by the Unemployment Rate (9.4) plus the Inflation Rate (1.5) to equal 10.9. The formula was first put out in 1970 and created by the economist Arthur Okun. The high of the Misery Index was 21.98 in June 1980 and the low was 2.97 in July 1953. I will venture to say we are on the road to exceeding the high index.
That is not what is important. The Misery Index is a statistical measurement that given the circumstances of high unemployment and inflation of how miserable we could be if we allow the conditions to affect us. It is a negative measurement. My belief is the Misery Index is based on our happiness as consumers and not on our psychological, spiritual and physical well being. The chances that we are likely to be struggling during these times and having difficulty is greater since we are going through a historical transitional period, forcing us to re-prioritize what is truly important. It is very likely those conditions could adversely influence us but our response is critical to our well-being. One key to keep in mind is that conditions are never permanent and always subject to change. If the index is going higher, we need to prepare ourselves mentally for the challenge.
There is no easy pop psychology answer on how we can prepare ourselves, how to respond under these conditions and what we do to rise above adversity. Oprah and Dr. Phil can't help us. Everyone is different and uses individual coping mechanisms and we must each come up with our own answers. The purpose here is not to give advice or resolve in one easy step how to remain strong in a weak economic world but to point out that strength is required.
Strength is required because I also believe we are heading for a clash of economic, social and political values and change that is not going to occur without a fight. If we are ever to reclaim the "American Way" of entrepreneurial individualism after almost one hundred years of creeping "progressive" socialism, sneaking up like a cat burglar, in collusion with the original collectivists, corrupt corporatism elitists, then we need psychological power as well as physical endurance for the fight.
Reference: The US Misery Index
Chart: The Economist online 01/24/11
1/25/11
Economic, Social and Geopolitical
My State of the Union...
We have too much debt and printing more money is now beyond counter-productive; the government can't fund any more programs or do more bailouts.
While being cautiously optimistic, I am hoping that Obama's move more to the center, will make the next two years far better than his first two years as President. There is clearly trouble on the horizon in the form of a potentially hard hitting Double Dip to this long term economic crisis recession, which has the potential to make this another great depression. Perhaps he really has learned some things on the job. My desire is that he has also studied some history and drawn reasonable conclusions but I'm holding back judgment on that. Actions speak louder than words and we already know he is excellent at the latter.
My concern is that the economic State of the Union is tenuous and there is relatively recent history to be our guide, beginning with the post-WWI twenties and the Great Depression of the thirties, of the previous century. What we can learn from the 1920s is what led up to the Depression has striking similarities to what led up to this economic crisis. We can also learn that the actions Franklin Roosevelt took in the 1930s have been partially undertaken already and did not work, meanwhile more are being proposed. What America needs to know is that before the 1929 crash the government was less than two percent of the economy and Roosevelt drove it up over thirty three percent. Whereas Coolidge was the last President who believed the government was the "invisible hand" in the nations business and economy, his successor, Hoover started the idea of government as the "benevolent hand" and Roosevelt took it to the extreme of the "controlling hand."
His famous statement, repeatedly reinforced, was "The country needs, and unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: if it fails admit it frankly and try another. But above all try something."
In other words, do something even if it's not well thought out, untested and wrong. We can't afford that.
The problem was that he also coupled this with massive regulation and micro-management of every aspect of business, small to large. The private sector held onto cash and wouldn't invest to build new or keep open all types of industries and hire people because they neither knew what to expect next from FDR and the regulatory rules were so voluminous they were difficult to interpret. This included agriculture and farming. The result was production was low and unemployment remained high. The myth we were all taught that Roosevelt saved us from the Depression by creating public sector jobs, in reality was because his increased interference had failed and it was a method to enlarge the government as an employer. What ended the Depression was not the CCC or WPA or regulatory agencies but the entry of the US into WWII in 1941.
Do we want to repeat the same mistakes?
Today President Obama, according to his State of the Union Preview Video and press statements, is going to propose ways to job creation through open markets. What I hope he also proposes is scaling back the huge regulatory expansion that has occurred in his first two years. His administration has created more red tape and interference than any President since Carter and this is what killed productivity and job growth in the private sector during the last depression. If you need an example, look towards the FCC and the Health Care Reform legislation. On another front, the Republicans are wasting precious time trying to repeal HCR, when what they should be doing is coming up with viable alternatives to modify and improve that legislation, to make it less onerous. They also need to recognize that military and defense spending is Republican welfare they are hooked on, just as much as the welfare they castigate Democrats for. It's all government growth and spending.
The bottom line is this: the last Quantitative Easing (QE2) that Obama went along with Bernanke doing is not working. It is creating inflation and worse, putting us in danger of hyper-inflation, we cannot spend our way out of this problem. It's fair to say we have avoided deflation, which would have been devastating. We cannot print anymore money, bail out any businesses or segments of the private sector, state or local governments, nor go on any public works and job programs. We do not have the money and we owe too much already.
Obama and Democrats need to back off government intervention that is counterproductive; Republicans need to be productive and propose realistic alternative solutions.
If Obama proposes any more projects for infrastructure, job creation, etc. it will never get through Congress. If he chooses to go further centrist for the larger good of the country, by backing off spending programs and regulation, allowing the fear to go out of the private sector, we will see more investment and albeit slowly, real job creation.
For their part the Republicans need to stop focusing on all the wrong things and start proposing some original ideas of their own as alternatives if they don't like what they see. Currently they are whining and sniping, adding fuel to fire, which is just as counterproductive as government interference. Democrats need to recognize that in many ways they have failed to solve our economic problems and their anger should be directed back to themselves. They must stop pandering to their constituent unions, since that has done more harm than good.
This country has taken a huge fall and so have economies all around the globe. Everyone has too much debt, not enough income due to high unemployment, along with a currency crisis from printing too much money and bailouts. These problems will not be resolved quickly, there is pain involved, hard work and sacrifice is required and all Americans need to reconcile themselves to that.
We have too much debt and printing more money is now beyond counter-productive; the government can't fund any more programs or do more bailouts.
While being cautiously optimistic, I am hoping that Obama's move more to the center, will make the next two years far better than his first two years as President. There is clearly trouble on the horizon in the form of a potentially hard hitting Double Dip to this long term economic crisis recession, which has the potential to make this another great depression. Perhaps he really has learned some things on the job. My desire is that he has also studied some history and drawn reasonable conclusions but I'm holding back judgment on that. Actions speak louder than words and we already know he is excellent at the latter.
My concern is that the economic State of the Union is tenuous and there is relatively recent history to be our guide, beginning with the post-WWI twenties and the Great Depression of the thirties, of the previous century. What we can learn from the 1920s is what led up to the Depression has striking similarities to what led up to this economic crisis. We can also learn that the actions Franklin Roosevelt took in the 1930s have been partially undertaken already and did not work, meanwhile more are being proposed. What America needs to know is that before the 1929 crash the government was less than two percent of the economy and Roosevelt drove it up over thirty three percent. Whereas Coolidge was the last President who believed the government was the "invisible hand" in the nations business and economy, his successor, Hoover started the idea of government as the "benevolent hand" and Roosevelt took it to the extreme of the "controlling hand."
His famous statement, repeatedly reinforced, was "The country needs, and unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: if it fails admit it frankly and try another. But above all try something."
In other words, do something even if it's not well thought out, untested and wrong. We can't afford that.
The problem was that he also coupled this with massive regulation and micro-management of every aspect of business, small to large. The private sector held onto cash and wouldn't invest to build new or keep open all types of industries and hire people because they neither knew what to expect next from FDR and the regulatory rules were so voluminous they were difficult to interpret. This included agriculture and farming. The result was production was low and unemployment remained high. The myth we were all taught that Roosevelt saved us from the Depression by creating public sector jobs, in reality was because his increased interference had failed and it was a method to enlarge the government as an employer. What ended the Depression was not the CCC or WPA or regulatory agencies but the entry of the US into WWII in 1941.
Do we want to repeat the same mistakes?
Today President Obama, according to his State of the Union Preview Video and press statements, is going to propose ways to job creation through open markets. What I hope he also proposes is scaling back the huge regulatory expansion that has occurred in his first two years. His administration has created more red tape and interference than any President since Carter and this is what killed productivity and job growth in the private sector during the last depression. If you need an example, look towards the FCC and the Health Care Reform legislation. On another front, the Republicans are wasting precious time trying to repeal HCR, when what they should be doing is coming up with viable alternatives to modify and improve that legislation, to make it less onerous. They also need to recognize that military and defense spending is Republican welfare they are hooked on, just as much as the welfare they castigate Democrats for. It's all government growth and spending.
The bottom line is this: the last Quantitative Easing (QE2) that Obama went along with Bernanke doing is not working. It is creating inflation and worse, putting us in danger of hyper-inflation, we cannot spend our way out of this problem. It's fair to say we have avoided deflation, which would have been devastating. We cannot print anymore money, bail out any businesses or segments of the private sector, state or local governments, nor go on any public works and job programs. We do not have the money and we owe too much already.
Obama and Democrats need to back off government intervention that is counterproductive; Republicans need to be productive and propose realistic alternative solutions.
If Obama proposes any more projects for infrastructure, job creation, etc. it will never get through Congress. If he chooses to go further centrist for the larger good of the country, by backing off spending programs and regulation, allowing the fear to go out of the private sector, we will see more investment and albeit slowly, real job creation.
For their part the Republicans need to stop focusing on all the wrong things and start proposing some original ideas of their own as alternatives if they don't like what they see. Currently they are whining and sniping, adding fuel to fire, which is just as counterproductive as government interference. Democrats need to recognize that in many ways they have failed to solve our economic problems and their anger should be directed back to themselves. They must stop pandering to their constituent unions, since that has done more harm than good.
This country has taken a huge fall and so have economies all around the globe. Everyone has too much debt, not enough income due to high unemployment, along with a currency crisis from printing too much money and bailouts. These problems will not be resolved quickly, there is pain involved, hard work and sacrifice is required and all Americans need to reconcile themselves to that.
1/24/11
You Can Quote Me On That
In an economic downturn...
Part Two
Follow up to blog on 01/22/11
During the seventies and most of the eighties I held a job that I often found mindless, stifling and sometimes hated but I needed it and there were no jobs in the area that were worth taking that paid any better. More than anyone I understand the struggle of holding an underpaid and not-very-challenging job with managers that didn't qualify for the word "leader," since they were barely able to supervise, much less manage and lead. Their best and only weapon was negative reinforcement and as a low level night supervisor I had to put up with a lot and constantly figure out how to appeal to their best interests to get them to do the right thing for the evening and night shift workers and customers. It was a constant struggle battling old mindsets of "we've always done it this way" from a previous era when things had changed. They were from a pick-up-the-handset-phone clerical environment loaded with paper records and we were in one of the first computerized, centralized technical support centers that required a different set of rules. Most of which had to be made up as we went along because everything was new and piloting without instrumentation.
It was another period of disruptive change that I welcomed but most of the people that were directing me did not. Since my alternatives weren't great I stuck with it and the key to more than surviving it, thriving in it, was viewing it as a chance to learn how to change others perceptions and behaviors. I reinvented myself as change agent before it became a recognized term, keeping my individuality intact, taking a chance at being a pioneer. There were other opportunities I saw in it also. It was an irregular income due to hours being varied and often cut back but had very good benefits, including full tuition to any school of my choice, which allowed me time to do other things a regular eight to five, 40 hour a week job wouldn't have permitted. I used the time outside of work to further my education, do a lot of creative things I was interested in and learn innovative financing of my life.
There also was always the threat of layoffs. When I wrote in my previous blog entry that it perplexed me why people who have jobs now complain so much and expect a pay raise, I knew exactly what I was saying. I get what having a job in an economic downturn that isn't exactly desirable is like. My perspective now comes from staring at statistics of millions of Americans being unemployed for up to three years, eating their life savings away, uncertain of the future and really not prepared for the New Economy. Therefore when I hear former co-workers complain about having to do more work, with higher health premiums and no raises but unlikely to be laid off, I understand their frustration but their anger is misplaced and somewhat disingenuous, riddled with "they owe me" entitlement.
I learned a very long time ago "don't love the company because it won't love you back." However, being angry about the situation only turns on you though, since the company doesn't care, they only want you to produce. What the individual does have is the power to figure out how to personally deal and cope with the conundrum in a way that doesn't eat them up inside, since that always ends up displaying itself on negative presentation of themselves to the outside world, making matters worse. It is the law of bad returns.
Fortunately I have a job now that I like, although it's real economic benefit is relatively inexpensive, good health care benefits, since the pay is low and the hours vary from 20 hours a week up to 40-60, depending on the time of year and the schedule of non-traditional hours changes weekly. It's a juggling act of money but I use the time off to my best advantage. I learned from my lessons of decades ago to save money when I work a lot of hours, since I have little free time to spend it anyway, saving it for the lean months when I do have more spare time. Everyone I work with now took this job for the same reasons, they had lost their previous job and we're all glad to have some income and benefits.
It's also far better than the job I had right before the crash, that I disliked almost every minute of, at a renown company that now has the distinction of being disreputable and is laying off again by the thousands. I took my current job because it was the best possible solution to the dilemma of few employment opportunities. Count me as underemployed and making the best of it. I recognize I'm fortunate to have two other small incomes, not enough to live on, this is a supplement but provides for me, besides benefits, other intangible things. It gives me the opportunity to learn something new, get back into a field I once was in, further my education some more and time to figure out where to go next. That might be my own business, some other method to get additional income on the side and most importantly, allowing me to continue stretching my creative side and expressing myself.
In many ways I recognize that I am fortunate but I also believe you create your own destiny and luck by taking what you've learned in the past and keeping your eyes wide open for new probabilities. Good fortune very often isn't mere luck but in the outlook you take on life and how you proceed with each challenge as they arise.
1/22/11
You Can Quote Me On That
In an economic downturn...
My working life started in the late sixties and employment in my younger life spanned the seventies all the way through to the economic recession of 1982-83. By that time I was almost thirty and had gotten used to the idea that I couldn't control the macro economy and long prior made the decision that I could control my own micro economic destiny. It wasn't always easy or uplifting, since my working world wasn't what I envisioned, somehow I managed though and learned from it.
Ringing in my ears from the beginning was my father and my aunt's refrain "In an economic downturn, get a job, any job and keep that job, until the economy clearly gets better." It was a result of their coming of age during the 1930s Depression. It was reinforced by mother's chorus "Don't complain and be thankful you have a job when so many people are out of work." It was complemented by the common saying of the time "This is a recession if you have a job, a depression if you don't."
I'm mystified in this current economic era why so many people who do have a job, complain about every little thing and especially about not getting a pay raise. I am bewildered that someone who has maintained a job, didn't get laid off or a salary reduction, has missed that there are a lot of people who would take their job in minute at a lower wage. It is also enigmatic to me why so many people feel they are entitled to a job or pay better than they are skilled for and won't take a job that is available. No one is overqualified in this economy, we all live in post-Katrina New Orleans now. Are they so clueless about the difficulty of millions of unemployed and underemployed people, that would like a job, any job and keep it, at any pay?
If you're employed and dissatisfied, please quit and discover what so many unemployed and underemployed people have. It will change your outlook on life, I guarantee it.
My working life started in the late sixties and employment in my younger life spanned the seventies all the way through to the economic recession of 1982-83. By that time I was almost thirty and had gotten used to the idea that I couldn't control the macro economy and long prior made the decision that I could control my own micro economic destiny. It wasn't always easy or uplifting, since my working world wasn't what I envisioned, somehow I managed though and learned from it.
Ringing in my ears from the beginning was my father and my aunt's refrain "In an economic downturn, get a job, any job and keep that job, until the economy clearly gets better." It was a result of their coming of age during the 1930s Depression. It was reinforced by mother's chorus "Don't complain and be thankful you have a job when so many people are out of work." It was complemented by the common saying of the time "This is a recession if you have a job, a depression if you don't."
I'm mystified in this current economic era why so many people who do have a job, complain about every little thing and especially about not getting a pay raise. I am bewildered that someone who has maintained a job, didn't get laid off or a salary reduction, has missed that there are a lot of people who would take their job in minute at a lower wage. It is also enigmatic to me why so many people feel they are entitled to a job or pay better than they are skilled for and won't take a job that is available. No one is overqualified in this economy, we all live in post-Katrina New Orleans now. Are they so clueless about the difficulty of millions of unemployed and underemployed people, that would like a job, any job and keep it, at any pay?
If you're employed and dissatisfied, please quit and discover what so many unemployed and underemployed people have. It will change your outlook on life, I guarantee it.
1/21/11
Thinking Out Loud
The Bitch(ing) is Back...
Vlog by Mike (Aspiring46er)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6nQdBhjQsQ&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/user/Aspiring46er
Vlog by Mike (Aspiring46er)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6nQdBhjQsQ&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/user/Aspiring46er
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