Fear Based Politics

Where are the leaders?...

Demagogues in the US are unwittingly leading us to revolution.

Americans are looking for leaders and finding only people with over-sized egos implementing political strategies to win popularity contests. We've been through five years now of the Great Recession that never really ended and appears to be resurfacing in a Double Dip. Many people are recognizing these terms are euphemisms and if we have not been in another Great Depression similar to the nineteen-thirties then we are headed for one. More than likely we have already begun a "Depression within a Depression" replicating 1936-1937. The terms really do not matter since the conditions are the same and storm clouds are gathering that portend something unheard of a decade ago and that is revolution. The term itself invokes fear but thinking about it, how much worse could that fear be than the fear based autocrats and technocrats that run our country now?

We are not only in an economic crackup of historic proportions but a social and political one as well that occurs in cycles every 60-80 years and every 300-500 years. In the long view of history we will be seen as one of the societies that went through both simultaneously. The times we live in are truly epic and not in the trite sense of the word nor of the garden variety cycles of history that repeat themselves in oft-quoted Santayana admonishment. A polymath who sees underlying problems with resolutions to be implemented in a well thought out way does well to understand that is not possible in epochs of radical change. We are on a road to some sort of revolution and sensibly organizing something such as a Second Constitutional Convention is likely only in aftermath. The deconstruction caused by a technological, economic, political and social disruption must come first.

When that occurs no prognosticator knows, only that surely it is coming and the general period of time but not the day and hour. In 2012 it seems the time is quickly drawing nearer. The average person regardless of their social intelligence senses these things and feels the winds blowing in sea change. What more pragmatically is there to know really? There are two ways to be led in times such as this: with inspiration and hope or with despair and fear.

Our current politicians are operating in the second mode, fear-mongering and blowing dog whistles to rile up all kinds of fears to stir people up and move them to their campaign and raise their donations. Perhaps the Democrats have leaders somewhere hidden in their lot but we don't know since they are not having a primary and not proffering any up since their nominee is a foregone conclusion. Their representative is not a leader and falls short in categories too numerous to mention that reveal themselves daily. Whether he is a likable or decent person to the beholder is irrelevant but the low caliber of the work he is performing is.

We find ourselves in an election season with a population that at a minimum is uneasy and unsure of what is happening in our country, generally burned out from this lengthy so-called Recovery that wasn't, genuinely concerned about the future short and long term. What do we get in return from the political class? A parade of clowns, trapeze artists, show ponies not fit for even a third rate circus all pandering to the lowest element and basest of emotions. Most people are tired of hearing about both the social progressive and social conservative agenda. They want to live their lives with some real hope and belief that things will one day get better. We may be in a bad spot that will take a long time to get out of but they want a leader who says "Yes we can rise above and work together" and not "my opponent is a jerk out to screw you." It's really that simple.

How this election season plays out in each act no one can predict but I'm willing to bet that the forces are already moving the average person to turn all the crazy negativity off. They will stop being complacent, halting the train of the loud mouth social progressives and social conservatives that are shouting down and drowning them out. It is reminiscent to me of Nixon's "Silent Majority" who did go out and vote for him because they wanted the merry-go-round to stop and they were tired and weary. Right, wrong, good, bad or indifferent he represented that to them. Will there be anyone to rise out of the Republican primary ashes to capture that sense? It's hard to see it but we will have to see.

My sense of it at this moment in time is the leaders are not there or are not willing to step forward and in some sense I can see why they wouldn't. There is no palatable way that much of the voting public can accept at this time the difficult and hard sacrifices that must be made to turn our economy around and our politics and society to some semblance of what America is supposed to be about. My prediction is that the current Administration will continue to make alienating bubble headed decisions that turn off even his own base and in return the Republicans nominate someone so far out in right field that the average American won't go for them. If they decide to vote who it will be for is going to be a difficult choice and my suspicion is whoever wins it will be by some default.

Our largest concern really isn't the crazy antics of the candidates themselves but the crazy billionaires crafting plans behind the scenes. They are the ones reigning over the concealed tyranny we are subjected to. To my way of thinking having two candidates that are not palatable to the majority of the country is probably a good thing in a seemingly bad way. It forces the average person to get active with their anger and strong arm the hands of the political and bureaucratic classes by submitting them to the will of the people rather than the other way around. The purpose is the neutering of the lobbying and billionaire money behind them and in the aftermath force that Second Constitutional Congress. Sounds like revolution? Yes it does, it's the real hard work, very doable and not as scary and violent as it sounds.

2012 Social, Economic, Political

Lay a foundation of inner strength for the long haul... 

This past year was one that I certainly cannot say "it went by so fast" since for me it didn't. It was a dramatic year of magnificent highs and lows, replete with drama resolved, that I fully lived every day of. Snitching a phrase it was "a time for every season" and a cliche it was a "passage of life" with the conundrum puzzled out. What I learned in the past year, after figuring out I didn't know as much as I thought, provided guide stones for what will certainly be a tumultuous year for our country and world. Going through and beyond personal milestones and stumbling blocks provided a solid foundation to allow me to personally cope with a globe going out of control that I can do little about. I learned that the external social disruption, economic disaster and political turmoil of the past few years cannot derail me and that I have the internal will to survive what may come.

This year the change in society will become evident to everyone and few will be able to live in denial. The economic crackup that seemingly took a brief holiday last year will return full force and cause social, economic and political realms to change. We are in for a tough year when the recognition that the quick fixes didn't work will out of necessity fade into settling in for a long haul of change and restoration. It is the end of the world as we knew it but not the end of the world, rather the aurora of a new period in history. People will stumble and fall as well as survive and thrive. Our goal is through skills of inner strength overcome and creatively rise above the fray relatively unscathed. We are of little use to others if we are not capable of keeping ourselves tethered to the shore.

When the world around us is spinning off its axis it's critical to remind ourselves we have no control over it. While external events may affect us how we respond and cope with them is what matters. A great thing about getting older truly is getting wiser. To gain wisdom we must learn from our past mistakes and victories so we may burrow a strong foothold on the spinning top of earth and keep our feet planted in the ground so as not to fly off.

The easy road to problems and difficulties is avoidance and procrastination except that actually results in multiplying into more bad situations. Painful and demanding is the road that leads to breaking through hard times but the by-product is not only resolutions but also acquiring new coping skills. It is these skills that we build an inherent infrastructure to keep us rooted on terra firma to avoid being blown away by extraneous gales and headwinds. If you haven't already, start laying your foundation of readiness to calmly live through the tempest. If you already have then keep building.

Stop Motion Economy

Square dancing in a monetary blur...

We're weathering a time that not even the experts and historians who study these things understand what is really happening with our global economy. If they claim to they're either bluffing, deluding themselves or lying. We are in an historical upheaval of epic proportions that contains common threads with similar chronological events of the past yet is different because it is distinctly in the here and now.

It is disquieting to our daily lives and will not be truly understood until the future. Meanwhile we are stuck in the present square dancing with partners we may or may not know and doing our best to keep time with the fiddle at a hoedown we'd rather not participate in. We're romping in a blur of light and dark, clarity and reflection, in a utilitarian fashion to keep our balance.

On the continuum of personal finances it's fair to say that many people are not being truthful to themselves or others. An old ethic that one never talks about money has revived with a strong resurgence; probably because there isn't a lot left to brag about. Almost everyone has been affected in some way and if they act and say as if they're not, then they are either bluffing, deluding themselves or lying. No one will come out of this decade without some markings of having changed for better or worse.

Meanwhile all we can do is square dance in a haze making sure we keep time and keep our footing while we whirl around. It's "Places all. Bow to your corner, bow to your partner, three hands up and around you go. Promenade around the ring, big foot up and little foot down, make that big foot jar the ground, back you go and forward again. Allemande left with the old left hand, meet your partner with a great big smile, promenade across the floor and now your home, bow to your partner, bow to the gent across the hall. And that is all."

Remaining positive during a hazy tenuous new economic age that expands beyond our known boundaries goes a long way to calming the disquietude of the storm. Coming up clean, being honest and truthful will not explain the disorder of economic, social and political change of the big picture but will comfort us individually on the home front.

There Is No Going Back to 1776 or Prior to The Civil War or 1913

We may be able to return to the Calvin Coolidge era...

Revolutionary change happens in a big leap followed by incremental progress in degrees. 

Our government in the US has been acting extra constitutionally at least since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Although we must restore it to the basic fundamental principles of the US Constitution designed by the Founding Fathers, I think it is unrealistic to expect it to go back the original form in one sweeping second revolution. What we can strive for first is a return to the last President who held fundamental beliefs of small and laissez-faire government, Calvin Coolidge.

There are several historical changes that have caused me to draw this conclusion. Primarily they are the Civil War, the 16th and 17th Amendments ratified in 1913 and the extraordinary powers unlawfully exercised by FDR that have been institutionalized by every President since. In my way of thinking the chances to roll back the changes those events brought completely in one fell swoop is highly unlikely.

Why do I believe this? The majority of the American people themselves are ignorant of our unique history, how our nation was founded, understand the principles that originally guided us and are incapable of drawing a sound conclusion. The generations after the Second World War and most particularly the generations since the sixties are the products of a society based on consumerism and an educational system where nothing of value regarding our history is taught and no one fails. They have the government they deserve because they allowed it to happen and are blissfully stupid about the consequences since they are beneficiaries of the idea of entitlement. Force feeding them an across-the-board change likely would not succeed since they will resist a revolutionary change and side with the current government, no matter how invasive it is, out of fear.

Another reason I think this is not possible is the changes that have occurred since the Industrial Revolution in communication, science and technology. We are currently in an era of huge disruptive change that also creates a different social, economic and political environment. When the Founding Fathers envisioned and created the US Constitution they were basing it on an agrarian society that is long gone. Additionally, as appalling I think both the 16th and 17th Amendments are repealing them is probably unlikely. The federal income tax is here to stay as is the direct election of Senators for the time being.

Most Americans only have vague notions and mostly incorrect ideas of what their rights are and believe our government is a democracy. Most of the rights they assume are actually only implied rights or rights enforced by court rulings and laws primarily regarding affirmative action quotas and employment law. They are clueless about the Bill of Rights and what it actually states. They are unaware that we are not a true democracy but a representative democracy that is a republic. To suggest or explain to them that the direct election of Senators is contrary to a republic and that it causes of a lot of our Congressional problems today would go nowhere.

We are headed for some sort of economic, political and social crash that is on a par with the Civil War and the changes that it brought. How it will play out is uncertain, in spite of the pronunciations of economic doomsayers, survivalists, preppers, radicals, socialist revolutionaries, et al. No one really knows and can predict the course of future history. More likely the crash will serve as a wake up call and result in a restructuring of our country rather than an all out collapse or another civil war.

There is a fast growing minority that is beginning to understand what the intention of the US Constitution, Bill of Rights and the Founding Fathers meant by a representative republican democratic form of government and that we have gone far astray from those principles. Those of us that understand this, it is our incumbent duty to educate and explain to those that do not understand and willing to listen and learn, what our government was intended to be to gain a majority to restore it. Regardless of what that entails or we will be awash in the flotsam and jetsam of government that will further encroach on our liberty and freedom of the individual.

Therefore I think the focus should be to return to the most recent modern era of the 1920s that small and laissez-faire government existed, accepting that certain elements of the Constitution will remain unchanged for the moment. This era did not cause the stock market crash of 1929 and subsequently the Great Depression, in actuality the period prior to Coolidge started government intervention and regulated monopolies did. Once we've re-established small government, then it will be time to repeal onerous constitutional amendments and extra constitutional laws and court decisions. Change and progress usually succeeds in incremental steps rather than a total revolutionary repeal that an under educated and unprepared people do not have the ability to cope with.

If You Are Unemployed or Underemployed

Make the most of your time...

Escapism is not a good full time occupation due to consequences.

Recent studies are indicating that TV watching and sleeping is rising rather than learning, exercise or self-improvement among the unemployed or underemployed. Other studies indicate that use of prescription psychoactive and painkiller drugs is escalating. Among developed countries the US is the third most expensive place to acquire cocaine along with its cousin methamphetamine due to high demand equaling high pricing by drug dealers. Americans are retreating into escapism and it should be no surprise given the state of our economy. Gratification providers are opportunistic capitalists and more than willing to make a profit at the expense of peoples need for comfort and their weaknesses.

As someone who has experienced both unemployment and underemployment since 2007 I can attest that this is a mistake I personally see a lot of people making. When I lost my job in 2007 due to the mortgage/foreclosure crisis, I determined that I was going to remain positive. It occurred in late summer and the stock market was cascading downward and it was clear that things were definitely awry in the economy in general and the first layoffs in the real estate, construction and financial industry were beginning. It seemed obvious to me that getting employment that matched what I had was unlikely. Fortunately there was another income in my household and by cutting expenses we would be alright for the time being.

My first goal was to keep my time occupied and I determined a course of action that was twofold. The first was practical; take care of items around the home that had been neglected and had fallen by the wayside that two full time working adults often don't have time or inclination for. The other was to reinvigorate my creative interests and cultivate them further. I set goals to improve my creating website and video content aptitude and learn more about interacting on the social web with the natural byproduct of gaining information to get those skills. I wanted to learn more about web templates, CSS, photography, video editing and improve my writing among other things.

It made sense to me to set out on trying to find any income where I could, even if they were small amount multiple streams, for my own sake of pride and pocket money. I have competence in legal work and did temporary and short term projects as well as contracting myself out to individuals and small groups whose technical savvy was behind the curve and wanted help using computers, the web and smartphones for job retention or seeking. I worked part-time for government agencies even though I dislike working in them the fact it was not permanent made it palatable. There were dry spells of income between and sometimes it was sketchy if we were even going to break even at times.

Think beyond the long term social, economic and political disruption.

This is a long term economic reset and it is likely to get worse before it gets better. The road to worldwide and American economy readjustment is a long one that is mostly uphill. Since there are no easy resolutions, as TARP and Quantitative Easing have proven, we may as well settle into the idea of making the best we can of it. My point is that during this time I think we are going to be divided not so much by education or income but by who is making the best use of their time with limited resources and those who are languishing by the wayside. This is a personal choice and I make no judgment on those who choose to fall into escapism but reserve my right not to associate with them or allow them to interfere with my well-being.

As it happens, those people I know who have been taking these past few years of unemployment and underemployment and undertaking self-development are getting some rewards for their efforts. Personally through being engaged with activities and other people I was gaining a new network of people in similar situations. Just over a year ago, right as I was beginning to think I would never hold a regular job again and have health insurance, through my associations and a recommendation I obtained a part-time job with inexpensive health benefits. The pay is much lower than I'm used to but it supplements another regular income I now have. Additionally through my creative work I'm still able to pick up pocket money. None of this would have happened if I had not remained positive and kept myself going.

This has gone a long way to improve not only my financial situation but also my sense of self although life has not returned to what it was financially. Looking back, I'm not sure now I need it to, I've learned a whole new way of living that has given me a sense of liberty and freedom I didn't have when working the drudgery of a "real job for The Man." My concept of thinking if you're doing the right thing the money will follow has been reinforced. I'm not as concerned for the future since I believe that if I maintain and keep current on changes in the society and the way we all will be living then my personal economic condition will eventually improve naturally.

Prepare for after the storm looking toward the future.

There have been times that managing my outlook has been a challenge and it takes work to keep going. During those times it is a matter of pressing forward even if it is slowly rather than pausing and risk momentum. To me it is a mistake to fall into watching too much TV, losing yourself passively watching sports, relying on chemically altering the mind for pleasure and other negative escapism. Whatever your interests are, be they creative endeavors, active sports, outdoor pursuits, mental and intellectual improvement or any combination, figure out a way to engage in them. If money is tight or non-existent there is always something you can do for healthy gratification and positive interaction with people.

This social, economic and political upheaval will end some day and your future beyond that depends upon what you are doing during it.

Economic Doom and Gloom

Survivalist or Survivor? Your choice...

The chief characteristics to personal stability are self-reliance and being prepared.

It seems to me that what many predicted is coming to pass and whether or not it's a "Double Dip" or a "long term slowdown in recovery" is mere semantics. What I think will really cause a collapse of the system is that the political and bureaucratic classes in DC - the Federal Reserve, the Administration and Congress - are playing with fire by making a game out of the debt ceiling, budget, quantitative easing and more. It is unnecessary roughness that serves only one real unintended purpose on their part and that is their own ultimate demise.

My belief is that is where we are heading. A economic crash and system collapse that is unlike any others in the past since we are in an entirely new era. Prior to the 1930s Recessions and Depressions were called Panics. Only history written down the road will name what we are going through but to my way of thinking the best I've heard is Disruption. We are indeed in a Great Disruption of the world as we knew it the past 100 years, since post-WWI, a turning point in history as big as the Reformation, Age of Enlightenment and American Revolution.

I believe America is going to be divided up regionally and not necessarily by contiguous geography but certainly confined to a certain extent by it, into segments of society who survive (and some will thrive) by taking responsibility for their own physical and mental health and working to maintain it. The amount of money, gold or supplies you have may or may not help you but your preparation, planning and wits will. Many of the survivalist camp think their moving off to the woods or for those who stay in towns and cities, growing your own and stockpiling will get them by. I understand that thinking and I do think that now is the time to preserve what you can, store as much as feasible and think of alternate ways to obtain goods in the future other than paper money. Therein lies material for an entire other blog that I'm still contemplating.

What is clear is that economically, therefore politically and socially, things are not improving and we are not "recovering." That is due to the fact that our recovery does not lie in restoring things the way they were and it's taking awhile to get that message through to the markets, people and institutions. This does not mean pending doom for everyone and there is no reason for gloom unless you are unprepared. I recognize some people are trapped in situations they feel they cannot get out of. My thought is "where there is a will there is a way" and it requires thinking through your situation to come up with the best possible solution.

No one promises that will be easy and it never has been in the history of America. Self reliance, mutual help, reinvention and rebuilding are inherent in the American character even if we seem to have lost that in the past 30-40 years. I have every faith it is still alive and well in this country and also in the inherent values of England and the British people.

Here is my video blog of a few weeks ago when the markets were still relatively stable, economic indicator reports had not come out and the debt situation in Europe and the US had not risen to the forefront again. I stand by what I said then.

http://youtu.be/H8GHuyngLZM

The Economy is Tanking Again

Don't let it sink you...

Quotable President Harry Truman said "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own." People can quibble all day what this economic era is called but it won't really have its own name until it's written past history. Recession, Depression, Disruption, take your pick, it's irrelevant in the here and now. What the average person really knows is for most people things aren't getting much better. For many it's taking a turn for the worse while some are pulling out of it and at least beginning to break even. Very few people are untouched although there are a some who doing well.

It is clear that generally for most people in Arizona the economy is not improving much, if at all. The optimistic projection of economists at the WP Carey School of Business of ASU is that it will be at least three years before we even begin to see a turnaround in our economy. Real people and businesses know better. We've been particularly hard hit by the real estate and mortgage foreclosure tsunami, with the first quarter results of this year being much more dismal than anticipated, both on the real estate sales and foreclosure fronts. Unemployment is technically just below the national average but that does not include people who have given up looking for work and the underemployed. Although there are jobs listed, they are too few for the number of people applying for them and most people are not qualified for these jobs and they don't pay very well. We have lost more quality jobs than we have gained in all jobs. Gas and food prices are going higher and people are running out of savings and credit while inflation for necessary items is increasing.

The danger seems to be systemic unemployment and that affects income which in turn affects business and tax revenue. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. The real danger to those who are long term unemployed or underemployed is not just losing skills but the effect it can have on the mind. This has been called a "man-cession" since unemployment has statistically hit men harder during this economic downturn unlike in the past. Since men still tend to identify themselves (and increasingly women) in terms of the work they do and associate it with their self-worth, the hazard of widespread psychological and subsequent social problems is pretty high. 

That is a trapdoor.

As difficult as it might seem with little money and limited resources it is critical to stay physically occupied and mentally challenged to avoid conjoining psychological depression with an economic one. I see this as a looming social problem for the country as a whole. That should serve as warning to anyone that it is a state of mind to avoid. Large numbers of people may fall into this trap but that doesn't mean you have to. The English idiom "where there's a will, there's a way" applies here. If we are determined not to fall into a trap and do something about our situation, then we can always find the means and approach to do it.

The challenge then is for people who do not want to become stagnant, depressed or lose skills to figure out how to rise above the crowd and do something constructive with the time involuntarily thrust into their hands. Every person is different therefore personal solutions are not the same. My belief is that anything you can do during this time period to occupy your body and mind will pay off in the long term. Anything you do from tutoring what you know to learning more about something you don't know will lead to possibilities. Standing still will not. The smart person will distinguish themselves from the masses that do nothing by becoming occupied with meaningful activities.

Eventually this economic downturn, whatever it is named, will end. When it does those that did nothing will continue to do nothing and those that did something will be doing something better than before. The new normal will become real normal and living will get much better. It always does, it is part of the human condition. The important thing to understand is this economic interim will become past history and when it does the future will become the present. You will be glad you prepared for down the line when it arrives, since you did not give up during this difficult time now, no matter what it ends up being called.