Quote of the Day: Jack Ablin

Bulls and Bears in Tug of War...

"The market is dominated by huge betting from both sides, and this tug of war in strategy reflects the uncertainty of the direction of the market and outlook for the economy," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

"US stocks post best September since 1939"
FT.com Markets

1 comment:

  1. I've been a semi-serious student of the stock market for years (which is to say that there's a LOT I don't know but I DO know that it's not a lot of random occurrences; you'd be shocked at how many people liken it to the lottery) and I see absolutely nothing that convinces me that a so-called strong September indicates anything about the economy. Mutual funds have huge quantities of stock they need move and investors who often "want to see something"; many shares could have been traded to cover short positions. That could account for volume and slight price movement...but it really says nothing about the solidity of the companies or the state of the economy.

    I like to try to think about how I would invest, say, a million dollars at any given time; it's a silly game but it makes me think about things a little I guess...anyway, I think right now I'd be trying to lay my hands on good agricultural farm land with springs or other fresh-water sources. I don't think I'd be laying too substantial a bet on anything that required much outside capital or government help (FDA approvals, etc.). I also ask myself, if I were a company, would I be purchasing much right now? I doubt I would be, excepting equipment I could pay cash for and amortize really quickly.

    If I owned gold, I would strongly consider selling it. As Jesse Livermore said, "you sell into the rise; you don't wait to find the top". When there are ads all over the radio offering to sell gold (or-to be truthful-offering the chance for me to purchase gold; same thing but it sounds so different), I can almost smell the top.

    I won't even go into how much the government(s) could affect the markets. There's simply no need to, except to note that any interefence on their part WON'T be helpful to individual investors.

    Strong September or not, consider me on the sidelines. I'll watch the game, but I'm not suiting up for it. Not yet. Not for a while.