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1/20/09

Now...the rest of the story


When President Obama seemingly flubbed the Oath of Office of the President of the United States of America...

my heart sank to my stomach.

As it happens the error was by Chief Justice Roberts, first for pausing in the incorrect place, as if waiting for President Obama to repeat creating an awkward moment. When President Obama decided to repeat in order to keep the flow going, Roberts instead interrupted him and continued. The stride was broken.

Then what Chief Justice should've said was:

"That I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States."
Instead he said, "That I will execute the office to President to the United States, faithfully." That ended any chance of the stride being regained.

Chief Justice Roberts, a Bush nominee, blew it and could not recover while the confidant, if untested, new President coolly waited for the Justice to regroup and administer the correct oath. It could seem emblematic of the Big Change of the Guard but I wouldn't count on old school allowing itself to be left out.

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The big misunderstanding I believe the media is perpetuating and selling is that President Obama is the Big Change in and of itself, rather that his election is one of the largest symbols of a significant part of it.

The Big Change has been coming on since before he even announced his candidacy and is not limited to Big Government Democratic politics. The Big Change is about an entire new outlook socially, economically and politically. To be sure his
ascendance to the Presidency is the marking and a symbol of a big shift and change we are currently experiencing. That change has been in the wind for a while and he is now the political leader in that unique moment, it is now up to him to correctly direct the political component of the change. That requires when someone else flubs his lines that he be quick and astute enough to pick up from that point and move on smoothly so few would notice.

Conor Dougherty writes an excellent piece on this idea in the Wall Street Journal that is a cogent analysis of what I refer to as The Big Change.

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Need a Real Sponsor here

A Country on the Cusp of Change

Obama will inherit a nation experiencing vast shifts in race relations, economy and culture

Barack Obama promised change. But the country he will lead is already changing in many ways that would challenge any president.

The U.S. is well on its way to becoming a "majority minority" country, where fewer than half the residents will be whites of European ancestry, raising issues of national identity and cohesion. Good-paying jobs in manufacturing continue to disappear, as they have for decades, but now high-paying ones in the financial sector are likely to vanish too. Among the fastest-growing age groups are Americans between 55 and 64; that increase highlights the growing burden of health care and pensions. Americans are more anxious than they've been in decades about their economic future.

The culture is changing as well. More Americans are likely to find their news and entertainment on the Internet, a shift that's changed media industries that shape opinions and culture. While a higher percentage of Americans are graduating college, a bachelor's degree no longer guarantees rising wages.

Many of the changes are for the good, including the prospect of better race relations, and the easing of regional tensions. Americans are saving more -- a shift that will be painful in the short term but could build a reservoir of capital to create jobs and investment. The recession may narrow the gap between the rich and everyone else.

In some ways Mr. Obama's rise parallels those changes. The child of a black Kenyan father and a white mother from Kansas, Mr. Obama was raised in Hawaii as well as abroad and represents the blurring of racial edges that will be part of the American future. His road to the White House also has reflected the growing alarm about the economy. When he launched his campaign two years ago, he spoke about elevating the middle class; when he spoke to crowds at the Lincoln Memorial on Sunday he warned of an economy in "crisis."

Demographic changes -- not only racial ones -- will continue to shape politics and the economy. America is getting older too. The retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, the oldest of whom is now 63, will pose an especially big challenge for a president who plans to spend heavily to counter recession. Even before the slump that began last year, Social Security was projected to go broke in three decades and Medicare much sooner, unless the government made big and controversial changes in both programs.

The U.S., long one of the most mobile of nations, continues to see a stream of Americans move south and west, although the lack of jobs and difficulty in selling homes have slowed that pace.

One surprising change: the renewed vitality of many cities after decades of decay. But for many of them, problems are simply being redistributed. Some cities are growing whiter and wealthier, while many suburbs are becoming less white and poorer. The urban fringe, meantime, has attracted many blue-collar workers and working poor who moved to new housing developments but now find themselves stuck in half-built neighborhoods and homes that are worth less than what they owe.

On the economic front, many Americans have seen their standards of living erode even before the latest recession began. Median incomes, adjusted for inflation, essentially stayed flat between 1999 and 2007, despite an economy that generally grew during that time and brought vast riches to top -- and even average -- performers on Wall Street. Meanwhile unions representing everything from paper-mill employees to auto workers and truck drivers have negotiated contracts with smaller pensions, more-expensive health care and in some cases cuts to hourly pay.

Adjusted for inflation, income of the top 1% of earners grew at an annual rate of 11% from 2002 to 2006, according to an analysis of Internal Revenue Service data by economists Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics and Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley. Incomes of the bottom 99% grew at less than 1% annually. With the exception of those with professional degrees, such as doctors and lawyers, every educational group including high-school graduates and PhDs earned less in 2007 than they did in 2000, adjusted for inflation.

Now, the pace of economic decline is accelerating. The country lost almost two million jobs in the last four months of 2008, and economists predict two million more will be lost in 2009. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to around 9% by year end, from 7.2% today. Companies are more likely than at any time since the Great Depression to cut wages.

Americans' frugal repose has been to resume putting away cash -- after the personal saving rate dropped in recent years to near zero as stocks and home values soared. That means fewer dollars spent in the shopping malls. Mr. Obama's program borrows liberally from the 1930s idea that vast government spending can boost economic growth and revive consumer and business confidence.

Americans have a great deal of faith in Mr. Obama's ability to succeed as president. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, two-thirds of Americans disapproved of the job George W. Bush was doing as president. Seven in 10 of those polled thought Mr. Obama was handling the transition to the presidency well.

Write to Conor Dougherty at conor.dougherty@wsj.com


Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page R4


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1/19/09

"I Have A Dream" by Dr Martin Luther King Jr

Full version of Martin Luther King's famous "I have a dream" speech.
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1/14/09

What is it with Twitter?


Having studiously avoided Twitter
up to this point, concerned with becoming weary of technological and information overload, I'm taking a second look at the potential and pitfalls of Twitter. Although an early adopter on a lot of things, the fundamental question of "why?" must be answered first for me to adopt anything, early or late.

In this video Jon
Rettinger of Jon4lakers Technology discusses why he was skeptical at first and why he is now a Twitter user.

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1/8/09

Dopey People Using Computers Make Dumb Passwords


...you didn't expect otherwise did you?

from What's My Pass?

The Top 500 Worst Passwords of All Time

November 30th, 2008 by admin in News, Password Info

From the moment people started using passwords, it didn’t take long to realize how many people picked the very same passwords over and over. Even the way people misspell words is consistent. In fact, people are so predictable that most hackers make use of lists of common passwords just like these. To give you some insight into how predictable humans are, the following is a list of the 500 most common passwords. If you see your password on this list, please change it immediately. Keep in mind that every password listed here has been used by at least hundreds if not thousands of other people.

There are some interesting passwords on this list that show how people try to be clever, but even human cleverness is predictable. For example, look at these passwords that I found interesting:

ncc1701 The ship number for the Starship Enterprise
thx1138 The name of George Lucas’s first movie, a 1971 remake of an earlier student project
qazwsx Follows a simple pattern when typed on a typical keyboard
666666 Six sixes
7777777 Seven sevens
ou812 The title of a 1988 Van Halen album
8675309 The number mentioned in the 1982 Tommy Tutone song. The song supposedly caused an epidemic of people dialing 867- 5309 and asking for “Jenny”

“…Approximately one out of every nine people uses at least one password on the list shown in Table 9.1! And one out of every 50 people uses one of the top 20 worst passwords..”

Lists the top 500 worst passwords of all time, not considering character case. Don’t blame me for the offensive words; you were the ones who picked these, not me.

NO Top 1-100 Top 101–200 Top 201–300 Top 301–400 Top 401–500
1 123456 porsche firebird prince rosebud
2 password guitar butter beach jaguar
3 12345678 chelsea united amateur great
4 1234 black turtle 7777777 cool
5 pussy diamond steelers muffin cooper
6 12345 nascar tiffany redsox 1313
7 dragon jackson zxcvbn star scorpio
8 qwerty cameron tomcat testing mountain
9 696969 654321 golf shannon madison
10 mustang computer bond007 murphy 987654
11 letmein amanda bear frank brazil
12 baseball wizard tiger hannah lauren
13 master xxxxxxxx doctor dave japan
14 michael money gateway eagle1 naked
15 football phoenix gators 11111 squirt
16 shadow mickey angel mother stars
17 monkey bailey junior nathan apple
18 abc123 knight thx1138 raiders alexis
19 pass iceman porno steve aaaa
20 fuckme tigers badboy forever bonnie
21 6969 purple debbie angela peaches
22 jordan andrea spider viper jasmine
23 harley horny melissa ou812 kevin
24 ranger dakota booger jake matt
25 iwantu aaaaaa 1212 lovers qwertyui
26 jennifer player flyers suckit danielle
27 hunter sunshine fish gregory beaver
28 fuck morgan porn buddy 4321
29 2000 starwars matrix whatever 4128
30 test boomer teens young runner
31 batman cowboys scooby nicholas swimming
32 trustno1 edward jason lucky dolphin
33 thomas charles walter helpme gordon
34 tigger girls cumshot jackie casper
35 robert booboo boston monica stupid
36 access coffee braves midnight shit
37 love xxxxxx yankee college saturn
38 buster bulldog lover baby gemini
39 1234567 ncc1701 barney cunt apples
40 soccer rabbit victor brian august
41 hockey peanut tucker mark 3333
42 killer john princess startrek canada
43 george johnny mercedes sierra blazer
44 sexy gandalf 5150 leather cumming
45 andrew spanky doggie 232323 hunting
46 charlie winter zzzzzz 4444 kitty
47 superman brandy gunner beavis rainbow
48 asshole compaq horney bigcock 112233
49 fuckyou carlos bubba happy arthur
50 dallas tennis 2112 sophie cream
51 jessica james fred ladies calvin
52 panties mike johnson naughty shaved
53 pepper brandon xxxxx giants surfer
54 1111 fender tits booty samson
55 austin anthony member blonde kelly
56 william blowme boobs fucked paul
57 daniel ferrari donald golden mine
58 golfer cookie bigdaddy 0 king
59 summer chicken bronco fire racing
60 heather maverick penis sandra 5555
61 hammer chicago voyager pookie eagle
62 yankees joseph rangers packers hentai
63 joshua diablo birdie einstein newyork
64 maggie sexsex trouble dolphins little
65 biteme hardcore white 0 redwings
66 enter 666666 topgun chevy smith
67 ashley willie bigtits winston sticky
68 thunder welcome bitches warrior cocacola
69 cowboy chris green sammy animal
70 silver panther super slut broncos
71 richard yamaha qazwsx 8675309 private
72 fucker justin magic zxcvbnm skippy
73 orange banana lakers nipples marvin
74 merlin driver rachel power blondes
75 michelle marine slayer victoria enjoy
76 corvette angels scott asdfgh girl
77 bigdog fishing 2222 vagina apollo
78 cheese david asdf toyota parker
79 matthew maddog video travis qwert
80 121212 hooters london hotdog time
81 patrick wilson 7777 paris sydney
82 martin butthead marlboro rock women
83 freedom dennis srinivas xxxx voodoo
84 ginger fucking internet extreme magnum
85 blowjob captain action redskins juice
86 nicole bigdick carter erotic abgrtyu
87 sparky chester jasper dirty 777777
88 yellow smokey monster ford dreams
89 camaro xavier teresa freddy maxwell
90 secret steven jeremy arsenal music
91 dick viking 11111111 access14 rush2112
92 falcon snoopy bill wolf russia
93 taylor blue crystal nipple scorpion
94 111111 eagles peter iloveyou rebecca
95 131313 winner pussies alex tester
96 123123 samantha cock florida mistress
97 bitch house beer eric phantom
98 hello miller rocket legend billy
99 scooter flower theman movie 6666
100 please jack oliver success albert

Source: Perfect Passwords, Mark Burnett 2005

12/31/08

The Machine that Changed the World

The out-of-print and unavailable history of computing video from 1991. The key to solving the "software problem" was found in the existing technology of the telephone state of "off" and "on."


The Machine that Changed the World: Giant Brains



The Machine that Changed the World: Inventing the Future



The Machine that Changed the World: The Paperback Computer



The Machine that Changed the World: The Thinking Machine



The Machine that Changed the World: The World at Your Fingertips



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The Machine That Changed the World which was produced by WGBH Television in Boston MA, in cooperation with the British Broadcasting Corp., with support from ACM, NSF and UNISYS. http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/TMTCTW.html was broadcast on PBS in 1991.

are you sure about that?...



"As governor I am required to make this appointment."
ROD R. BLAGOJEVICH, of Illinois, naming a successor to Barack Obama in the Senate.

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

New York Times online December 31, 2008

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When I started out on computers in the 70s it was not a conscious choice but a lot of my friends were "geeks" and my work also required me to learn the basics so I did. They were unfriendly machines to me, to be used like a car or the telephone, for a specific utilitarian purpose. Computers were simply a means to an end that I had to master to achieve what I wanted, I wasn't a natural at it.

Some of those friends spurned the way the internet became a multimedia network while I embraced it. At this stage I'm beginning to reflect on that attitude with some regret. Once in the deep waters of technology though you no longer simply wade out of them.

An end of year reprint from the Wall Street Journal online that has a lot of implications in the area of telecommunications as well as the internet and online social networking.

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12/24/08

Words That Cause People Who Are Cool With The Vision Thing Cringe: "We’re from the Federal government…we’re here to help"

...unless you're the military protecting my homeland, no thanks, I don't need your kind of government help. You've done enough in my life with the regulated monopoly Bell System, Affirmative Action Consent Decree, Divestiture, Telecommunications Act of 1996...

This holiday week here's another reprint, this time from The Telecommunications History Group by Herb Hackenburg, "We're from the federal government...we're here to help." He makes relevant points about bailouts and the banking industry on the precipice of nationalization.

I foresee the banking industry as some new form of regulated behemoth much like the Bell System was only morphed into a form for this era and that industry. Regardless of how the situation develops the end will be the same, giant organizations that will eventually somehow have to be weaned off taxpayer subsidies because the burden is too much. Likely it will not be pretty either, much like the Divestiture of the Bell System, fraught with problems that eventually bring it all down.

(Does anyone really believe that the current incarnation of AT&T is remotely anything like the original one in spite of reacquiring some of their former companies?)


The government created, aided and abetted the regulated utility monopoly, whether or not that was a good or bad idea became irrelevant decades after the monopolies were established. At the time the regulated monopoly and Universal Service Fund seemed to make sense to some people in order to build out the communications system. It sufficed for it's era but inevitably it became stagnant and needed reform. It's a classic example of why "sunset laws" are effective and necessary, to avoid self-perpetuating entities not realistically dealing with current situations.

The bottom line still is the government created the regulated Bell System and Independent telephone system, good, right, wrong, bad or indifferent and was irresponsible in the manner divestiture and deregulation occurred. In this case, when the government had for decades regulated a private sector industry integral to the economy as a matter of policy, the government should not have walked away as fast as they did without a sensible (not Washington DC or US Court) orderly business unwinding.

It was actions like this, in several major industries in the same era, that very possibly is one of the major early triggers of the current Economic Crisis.

The phone companies were more than just the wires that connect to make people talk, it was also a lot of paychecks to people across all wage scales and in communities across the entire land. The company was vital in multiple ways to the macro-economy.

While there is no doubt that the decades of government intervention need to be reconfigured or unwound in the telephone, airline, trucking and other industries because it was no longer relevant and impeding progress...

was it smart to bust the whole thing in oddball parts with such ineptitude?

Whenever the government steps in to help, that help is institutionalized forever and cannot be untangled once the conduit for the bureaucratic lines has been laid. No matter the originating circumstances and cause and nature of a crisis that may have caused a reaction of government intervention, before it is undertaken we must take into consideration how that intervention will be undone. We learned from a rapid unwinding of the Bell System and subsequently, the telcom and tech crash and the current Telcom Nuclear Winter, what government intervention and subsequent extrication, that nether side was really prepared for, can do destructively. Sunsetting of regulations and policies, after scheduled periodic review and action in a timely manner, is crucial to stop the regulations and policies attendant bureaucracies from snowballing into self-perpetuating money-wasters.

Hindsight on utility monopolies and government help is 20/20 but the lesson is there to be learned for all, so it is not repeated. If you were a pessimist and a betting person, regardless of the obvious lessons, you should bet that we're going to repeat these mistakes. Actually, we have already started.

We should not go down the road of government help no matter how afraid we are of current conditions without checks and balances. We've recently made two giant moves in the wrong direction by effectively nationalizing major banks and creatively bailing out the auto industry. The consequences will be, at the minimum, problematic to the macro-economy in the future.

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an aside about preserving telephone history:

We are possibly in danger of losing a lot of our industry history, by collection or a lack of ability and resources to preserve it, since a great deal of it is maintained by retiree-volunteers and the economic crisis has affected all similar organizations. These retiree-volunteers are growing older and fund-raising as well as existing funds are tighter. There is a real possibility these retirees may also be losing retirement benefits and will be less able to afford to contribute more than just their time.
In my mind I see the current caretakers doing excellent jobs in their work but a large gap exists in the use of new technology, the internet, for both research and preservation records. The challenge is in transitioning not only the articles of history but the sense of what the industry was about besides just the wires that connected for people to talk.
Video online is one tool to consider in preserving the sense of the industry.Young people and boomers must get more involved to continue the work.

Please support preserving and maintaining historical items, records and archives in something that interests you. The Telecommunications History Group, Inc. is one such organization for those of us interested in the traditional telephone system.

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We’re from the federal government…we’re here to help


By Herb Hackenburg
The Telecommunications History Group, Inc.
from the Winter 2008 print newsletter "Dial-Log"
Winter 2008, Vol. 12, No. 4



2008 will probably be remembered as the year of financial disasters and large government bailouts. The United States government began to buy into the nation’s largest banks. The banks’ cost for government help was additional government oversight of how they conduct business. Not quite bank nationalization…yet.

Ninety years ago, the world was at war. The United States entered the conflict and the government took control of the nation’s telephone industry.

Woodrow Wilson was the President of the United States. Wilson’s Postmaster General was Albert Sidney Burleson, described by most people as a populist, by some as a socialist. In 1913, Burleson advocated that the Nation’s telegraph and telephone service should be “postalized.” Burleson suggested that if that idea was good enough for most of Europe, it should be good enough for the United States.


Albert Sidney Burleson


Burleson had never really sold his idea to the United States’ telephone or telegraph industry, the government, or the voters. The emergency powers brought about by the United States' entry into World War I allowed Burleson make a government operated telephone system a reality.

The marriage between the Bell System, the Independent Telephone Association, and the U. S. Postal Department was not made in heaven--it was made by edict. A press release at 1:01 am on August 1, 1918, was the “wedding announcement.”

The release said:

“Pursuant to the proclamation of the President of the United States I have assumed possession, control and supervision of the telegraph and telephone systems of the United States. This proclamation has already been published and the officers, operators and employees of the various telegraph and telephone companies are acquainted with its terms."

The next paragraph says that the telephone and telegraph companies should operate exactly as they had been, under the same leadership and financing they had in place. There are seven rather important words in this paragraph — “…unless otherwise ordered by the Postmaster General.”

“I earnestly request the loyal cooperation of all officers, operators and employees, and the public in order that the service rendered shall be not only maintained at a high standard but improved wherever possible. It is the purpose to coordinate and unify these services so that they may be operated as a national system with due regard to the interests of the public and the owners of the properties.

“No changes will be made until after the most careful consideration of all the facts. When deemed desirable to make changes announcement will be made.”

Authorization for issuing the edict came from a joint resolution from Congress designed to give the president the authority to assume control of all of the nation’s telegraph and telephone companies. In the Congressional hearings on the matter Theodore Vail, the head of the Nation’s largest telephone company, was not invited to give testimony. In fact, he was not even allowed to attend the hearings.

After the fact, Vail was invited to meet with Burleson. Privately, both men had expressed a dislike and distrust of each other. They had never met face to face. During the meeting, Vail expressed his main concern--that customer service should not be degraded under “postalization.” Burleson, in turn, asked Vail to take a major role in making mutually satisfactory financial arrangements between the phone companies and the government. By the end of the meeting both Burleson and Vail felt the other guy wasn’t so bad after all. However, it’s interesting that a search of Bell System employee publications at this time show that phone company stories concerning this government takeover at no time mention Burleson by name. He is always referred to as the Postmaster General.

While the “postalized” telephone service only lasted about a year, for the average customer it was a service and financial disaster. One of the first things Burleson did was to institute fees for installing a telephone. Vail had been trying to establish an installation fee system, but the state utility commissions would not allow it. Now federal edict instantly trumped all the state regulators, according to the United States Supreme Court. Later, the post office raised both long distance and local service rates by 20 percent.

Service was degraded because much of the newly manufactured phone equipment was being sent overseas for the Army’s use. In addition, there was a shortage of employees to maintain domestic telephone service; the Army Signal Corps had nearly 18,000 Bell System men in its ranks and nearly as many from the nation’s independent telephone companies.

And when customers would complain to the telephone company, many were told politely, “There isn’t anything we can do about it, we’re owned by the government.”

The war ended about a month after the “postalization,” but “postalization” lived on. The voters became restless.

Congress was deluged with letters demanding the end of government controlled telephone service. A new joint resolution was adopted, unique in that Congress admitted that the whole “postalization” idea was wrong and apologized to the voters for adopting it in the first place.

Meanwhile, rather quietly, AT&T enjoyed its most profitable year to date.

And those installation fees are still around.

It will be interesting to see how government ownership affects the banking industry over the next few months.


The iPhone 3G and iPhone clones






The iPhone 3G and iPhone clones


By Phil Goldstein

The news: AT&T Mobility launched the Apple's iPhone 3G July 11, ushering in a new era of high-speed data capable smartphones. Apple's second-generation iPhone, which featured the same sleek look and innovative touchscreen user interface of the first-gen iPhone, now offered consumers the ability to surf the Web using AT&T's HSPA network and that sparked a flurry of iPhone clones.

T-Mobile USA jumped into the ring post-iPhone 3G, with the launch of the G1, the first phone based on Google's Android platform, which boasted a touchscreen and a QWERTY keyboard. Then came the Nokia 5800 XpressMusic, formerly known as the Tube. Verizon Wireless followed up shortly thereafter with the Motorola Krave ZN4--billed as both a touchscreen phone and a flip phone.

Then, the deluge came: the Samsung Epix (AT&T); the HTC Touch Pro, a soup-ed up version of the HTC Touch Diamond (Sprint Nextel); the $800 Sony Ericsson Xperia X1; the Samsung Saga (Verizon) and Samsung Eternity (AT&T); Research In Motion's BlackBerry Storm--the first touchscreen BlackBerry (Verizon); the Samsung Omnia (Verizon); and the Nokia N97.

Why it was significant:
It is easy to pronounce this or that as a paradigm shift, but the launch of the iPhone 3G truly was one. The genius lay behind its marketing, with each 30-second ad almost like an infomercial for how to use the multiple features and applications of the iPhone 3G, and then, at the end, reminding customers that it was a phone, too. Apple marketed the iPhone 3G as a mobile computer and digital media player first, and a phone second. And other handset makers felt they had to follow suit, launching a bevy of sleek phones with touchscreen UI's. While each pretender to the throne was looking to be an iPhone-Killer, so far the iPhone 3G remains at the top, simply by virtue that no other handset has achieved the same kind of brand recognition that the iPhone 3G has.

12/22/08

Now I have questions on this...


but have just started to really delve into it. Originally being a skeptic on the topic doesn't mean an open mind can't later learn more information and develop a more enlightened view.

This article started me thinking about this last summer and a random event this past week has reopened it for further inquiry. more about that, tbc...




What do brain surgeons know about cellphone safety that the rest of us don’t?

Last week, three prominent neurosurgeons told the CNN interviewer Larry King that they did not hold cellphones next to their ears. “I think the safe practice,” said Dr. Keith Black, a surgeon at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, “is to use an earpiece so you keep the microwave antenna away from your brain.”

Dr. Vini Khurana, an associate professor of neurosurgery at the Australian National University who is an outspoken critic of cellphones, said: “I use it on the speaker-phone mode. I do not hold it to my ear.” And CNN’s chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, a neurosurgeon at Emory University Hospital, said that like Dr. Black he used an earpiece.

Along with Senator Edward M. Kennedy’s recent diagnosis of a glioma, a type of tumor that critics have long associated with cellphone use, the doctors’ remarks have helped reignite a long-simmering debate about cellphones and cancer.

That supposed link has been largely dismissed by many experts, including the American Cancer Society. The theory that cellphones cause brain tumors “defies credulity,” said Dr. Eugene Flamm, chairman of neurosurgery at Montefiore Medical Center.

According to the Food and Drug Administration, three large epidemiology studies since 2000 have shown no harmful effects. CTIA — the Wireless Association, the leading industry trade group, said in a statement, “The overwhelming majority of studies that have been published in scientific journals around the globe show that wireless phones do not pose a health risk.”

The F.D.A. notes, however, that the average period of phone use in the studies it cites was about three years, so the research doesn’t answer questions about long-term exposures. Critics say many studies are flawed for that reason, and also because they do not distinguish between casual and heavy use.

Cellphones emit non-ionizing radiation, waves of energy that are too weak to break chemical bonds or to set off the DNA damage known to cause cancer. There is no known biological mechanism to explain how non-ionizing radiation might lead to cancer.

But researchers who have raised concerns say that just because science can’t explain the mechanism doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist. Concerns have focused on the heat generated by cellphones and the fact that the radio frequencies are absorbed mostly by the head and neck. In recent studies that suggest a risk, the tumors tend to occur on the same side of the head where the patient typically holds the phone.

Like most research on the subject, the studies are observational, showing only an association between cellphone use and cancer, not a causal relationship. The most important of these studies is called Interphone, a vast research effort in 13 countries, including Canada, Israel and several in Europe.

Some of the research suggests a link between cellphone use and three types of tumors: glioma; cancer of the parotid, a salivary gland near the ear; and acoustic neuroma, a tumor that essentially occurs where the ear meets the brain. All these cancers are rare, so even if cellphone use does increase risk, the risk is still very low.

Last year, The American Journal of Epidemiology published data from Israel finding a 58 percent higher risk of parotid gland tumors among heavy cellphone users. Also last year, a Swedish analysis of 16 studies in the journal Occupational and Environmental Medicine showed a doubling of risk for acoustic neuroma and glioma after 10 years of heavy cellphone use.

“What we’re seeing is suggestions in epidemiological studies that have looked at people using phones for 10 or more years,” says Louis Slesin, editor of Microwave News, an industry publication that tracks the research. “There are some very disconcerting findings that suggest a problem, although it’s much too early to reach a conclusive view.”

Some doctors say the real concern is not older cellphone users, who began using phones as adults, but children who are beginning to use phones today and face a lifetime of exposure.

“More and more kids are using cellphones,” said Dr. Paul J. Rosch, clinical professor of medicine and psychiatry at New York Medical College. “They may be much more affected. Their brains are growing rapidly, and their skulls are thinner.”

For people who are concerned about any possible risk, a simple solution is to use a headset. Of course, that option isn’t always convenient, and some critics have raised worries about wireless devices like the Bluetooth that essentially place a transmitter in the ear.

The fear is that even if the individual risk of using a cellphone is low, with three billion users worldwide, even a minuscule risk would translate into a major public health concern.

“We cannot say with any certainty that cellphones are either safe or not safe,” Dr. Black said on CNN. “My concern is that with the widespread use of cellphones, the worst scenario would be that we get the definitive study 10 years from now, and we find out there is a correlation.”